Official Armchair GM Thread 2015-2016

[louisstamos]

1. Not as high as it would be if he'd been putting up better numbers since the start of the year. I think you could probably get a 1st or a B+/A- prospect for him but that's probably more of an off-season deal.
2. 5.5 or 6 per?
3. Sign him but I'd try to get a 3 or 4 year deal. 4/24 sounds pretty good to me.

I had this exact conversation with my bass player last night with the exact same conclusion.  4/24 is the perfect contract for Kadri (but I'll imagine he'll want more term)

 

[Kin]

I had this exact conversation with my bass player last night with the exact same conclusion.  4/24 is the perfect contract for Kadri (but I'll imagine he'll want more term)

He probably will but he's not going to have a ton of leverage. I'd be basically just as happy signing him to a one year deal and then dealing him as a pending UFA(or, if he has another season of bad production, trying to sign him to a longer term deal next year). He's not in a good position to demand anything right now so the question for him will be whether to take the relative security of a 4/24 deal or take a big gamble on what he'll be able to produce next year when the team is hopefully giving Nylander/Marner/Matthews(or whoever) a big chunk of the offensive opportunities he's currently getting.

 

[AvroArrow]

Trade him and everybody else on the roster outside of Reilly.

 

[Frank E]

1. Not as high as it would be if he'd been putting up better numbers since the start of the year. I think you could probably get a 1st or a B+/A- prospect for him but that's probably more of an off-season deal.
2. 5.5 or 6 per?
3. Sign him but I'd try to get a 3 or 4 year deal. 4/24 sounds pretty good to me.

Wrong.  The correct answers are:

1. He is worth a blue chip 19-20 year old.
2.  $5 x 5
3.  Sign him...but if he wants a penny more, I'd move him.

 

[Frank E]

You know, I seem to recall that Dubas was saying that they were going to use the Solar Bears as a development league for some of their prospects.

I don't think I see a single Leaf pick on that roster:

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/1/7/10726480/who-is-where-a-look-at-the-maple-leafs-vertical-roster-moves

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

You know, I seem to recall that Dubas was saying that they were going to use the Solar Bears as a development league for some of their prospects.

I don't think I see a single Leaf pick on that roster:

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/1/7/10726480/who-is-where-a-look-at-the-maple-leafs-vertical-roster-moves

I think it's going to be more for FA signings or for picks on the Marlies to go down there for a shorter period to get their game going.  There have been some picks at different times on the team, but not at the moment.  Some of that is probably the realities of mid-season injuries, call-ups, etc.

 

[Highlander]

Most of the Leaf players on Solar Bears are undrafted but getting a chance to develop, guys like Watling and Rupurt to name a few. Probably nothing will become of any of them, or just will be fill in's for injured Marlies

 

[Kin]

1. He is worth a blue chip 19-20 year old.
2.  $5 x 5
3.  Sign him...but if he wants a penny more, I'd move him.

1. I think that's more or less what I said. You're not getting a Strome/Werenski type for him.
2. You're misjudging the market for a good young center.
3. Be prepared to try and move him.

 

[Kin]

You know, I seem to recall that Dubas was saying that they were going to use the Solar Bears as a development league for some of their prospects.

I don't think I see a single Leaf pick on that roster:

Like I said at the time, turning the ECHL into a good developmental league wasn't a decision the Leafs could make unilaterally.

 

[Frank E]

You know, I seem to recall that Dubas was saying that they were going to use the Solar Bears as a development league for some of their prospects.

I don't think I see a single Leaf pick on that roster:

Like I said at the time, turning the ECHL into a good developmental league wasn't a decision the Leafs could make unilaterally.

I agree, and I think many of us around here said as much when Dubas floated that. 

 

[Britishbulldog]

1. He is worth a blue chip 19-20 year old.
2.  $5 x 5
3.  Sign him...but if he wants a penny more, I'd move him.

1. I think that's more or less what I said. You're not getting a Strome/Werenski type for him.
2. You're misjudging the market for a good young center.
3. Be prepared to try and move him.

2.  I was figuring on Kadri coming in the range of Tavares ($5.5 * 6), Landenskog ($5.6 *7) and Jamie Benn ($5.25*6) with this contract.  I would hope that Kadri would get locked down to a long contract @ $5.25

Especially after Benn signed his contract after holding out and having these numbers the 2 seasons before signing:
gms  g    a    pts
69 22 34 56
71 26 37 63

compared to Kadri's last 2 years of
gms  g    a    pts
78 20 30 50
73 18 21 39

You would think that an increasing contract like Tavares would work ($5.25 aav):
4.25, 4.5, 5, 5, 5.25, 5.5, 6, 6

$6.0 aav might be needed to lock Kadri down until he is 34 years old:
4.5, 5, 5.5, 6, 6, 6.5, 7, 7.5....but that seems a bit steep to me....so it is probably right.

 

[Kin]

2.  I was figuring on Kadri coming in the range of Tavares ($5.5 * 6), Landenskog ($5.6 *7) and Jamie Benn ($5.25*6) with this contract.  I would hope that Kadri would get locked down to a long contract @ $5.25

Especially after Benn signed his contract after holding out and having these numbers the 2 seasons before signing:
gms  g    a    pts
69 22 34 56
71 26 37 63

compared to Kadri's last 2 years of
gms  g    a    pts
78 20 30 50
73 18 21 39

You would think that an increasing contract like Tavares would work ($5.25 aav):
4.25, 4.5, 5, 5, 5.25, 5.5, 6, 6

$6.0 aav might be needed to lock Kadri down until he is 34 years old:
4.5, 5, 5.5, 6, 6, 6.5, 7, 7.5....but that seems a bit steep to me....so it is probably right.

I really don't know how to respond to this. You get that how old a player is and their impending contract status matters, right? You're directly comparing five year deals signed by players with three or more seasons until UFA status to Kadri signing a deal with one year until he's a UFA.

Also, why would you want to structure an increasing contract? It's less lucrative for the player and makes them a less appealing trade piece as they age.

 

[Britishbulldog]

I really don't know how to respond to this. You get that how old a player is and their impending contract status matters, right? You're directly comparing five year deals signed by players with three or more seasons until UFA status to Kadri signing a deal with one year until he's a UFA.

Also, why would you want to structure an increasing contract? It's less lucrative for the player and makes them a less appealing trade piece as they age.

Actually I was looking at ages and not contract statuses (stati?) at all.  Good point.  The guys I picked are all their team's captains as well which I believed is above a position that Kadri wouldn't be considered for.

Re-working the contract for $6 MIL x 8 years and maximizing the payment at the expected prime of his career of 29 years old it would be:
16/17 $5
17/18 $6
18/19 $6.5
19/20 $7.5
20/21 $7
21/22 $6.5
22/23 $5
23/24 $4.5

With a $2 MIL signing bonus each year giving Kadri a $6 MIL cap hit and only being owed $2.5 July 2nd 2023 to the trade deadline 2024 as a rental for picks and prospects.

 

[Kin]

Actually I was looking at ages and not contract statuses (stati?) at all.  Good point.  The guys I picked are all their team's captains as well which I believed is above a position that Kadri wouldn't be considered for.

You also cherry picked what are regarded as some of the most team-friendly RFA contracts in the league. John Tavares got 5.5 million a year as a RFA. David Clarkson got nearly the same as a UFA. Are they similar players?

Why compare Kadri to vastly different situations as opposed to the players who are in similar situations? I mean, you say you were looking at ages but Landeskog and Tavares signed their deals as 21 year old players.

Re-working the contract for $6 MIL x 8 years and maximizing the payment at the expected prime of his career of 29 years old it would be:
16/17 $5
17/18 $6
18/19 $6.5
19/20 $7.5
20/21 $7
21/22 $6.5
22/23 $5
23/24 $4.5

I mean, I don't understand why you'd go for an 8 year deal but if so why wouldn't you just structure it to be as lucrative as possible for Kadri?

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I really don't know how to respond to this. You get that how old a player is and their impending contract status matters, right? You're directly comparing five year deals signed by players with three or more seasons until UFA status to Kadri signing a deal with one year until he's a UFA.

Also, why would you want to structure an increasing contract? It's less lucrative for the player and makes them a less appealing trade piece as they age.

Actually I was looking at ages and not contract statuses (stati?) at all.  Good point.  The guys I picked are all their team's captains as well which I believed is above a position that Kadri wouldn't be considered for.

Re-working the contract for $6 MIL x 8 years and maximizing the payment at the expected prime of his career of 29 years old it would be:
16/17 $5
17/18 $6
18/19 $6.5
19/20 $7.5
20/21 $7
21/22 $6.5
22/23 $5
23/24 $4.5

With a $2 MIL signing bonus each year giving Kadri a $6 MIL cap hit and only being owed $2.5 July 2nd 2023 to the trade deadline 2024 as a rental for picks and prospects.

You want to sign him to an 8 year deal for 6 million per year? Wow. If you're going to max him out on length, do we not figure there's a discount to be had?

 

[bustaheims]

You want to sign him to an 8 year deal for 6 million per year? Wow. If you're going to max him out on length, do we not figure there's a discount to be had?

Probably not, to be honest. The other 8 year deals that have been signed around the league haven't really come with any real discount, either. We're also talking about signing a player through his prime earning years, so, $6M per could very well be a discount in his eyes.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

You want to sign him to an 8 year deal for 6 million per year? Wow. If you're going to max him out on length, do we not figure there's a discount to be had?

Probably not, to be honest. The other 8 year deals that have been signed around the league haven't really come with any real discount, either. We're also talking about signing a player through his prime earning years, so, $6M per could very well be a discount in his eyes.

I would be surprised if Shanahan/Lou signed a guy who is, ideally, a second line player to an 8-year contract. I would be pretty happy with a 5 or 6 year deal for somewhere around $6M per.

 

[bustaheims]

I would be surprised if Shanahan/Lou signed a guy who is, ideally, a second line player to an 8-year contract. I would be pretty happy with a 5 or 6 year deal for somewhere around $6M per.

Well, that's a different story. I don't think they'd go longer than 5-6 years, either. I just don't think there's any discount to be had at 8 years.

 

[Frank E]

It's just Button's list, but according to him here's your current top 5 for the 2016 draft:

Matthews
Puljujarvi
Laine
Tkachuk
Nylander

http://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-can-t-go-wrong-with-puljujarvi-laine-1.421415

We seriously want Matthews, but the 2 Fins are not a bad consolation.  I think Tkachuk and Nylander are definitely a tier down from the Fins, and Matthews might be on his own planet.

So my point is that we need to draft in the top 3 at this point.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

It's just Button's list, but according to him here's your current top 5 for the 2016 draft:

I was curious to see how much Chychrun's draft stock would drop after not getting a chance to play at the World Juniors. Kinda sucks for him, as Canada probably should have taken him (especially after seeing how unimpressive their blueline was). I still think that he goes top-5 though. With the way that the lottery works I'll be pretty happy drafting anywhere in the top-6. Obviously the higher the better but there's some good consolation prizes there in either Chychrun or Nylander.