TOP 5 PICK!!!

[Andy007]

I like that a guy who scored 781 NHL points over 12 seasons is being used as a benchmark for a terrible misfire.

The comparison to Yashin, as I see it, has more to do with unreliabilty and uncertainty than point accumulation.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

I'm not sure if this is true or not, it was posted at hfboards so take it fwiw, but grigorenko flew to a few cities to visit several teams in the top 5 and the leafs were definitely not one of them.

I don't know hardly anything about this years prospects but I wouldn't mind forsberg at all. Generally speaking the swedes have had very positive development in recent years and seem to be low risk high reward.

Well, he was just in Toronto for the NHL Combine. 

 

[Kin]

The comparison to Yashin, as I see it, has more to do with unreliabilty and uncertainty than point accumulation.

Which is why it's a comparison that doesn't make a lot of sense. Yashin's issue, and it's convenient to forget that this was true about guys like Mike Peca and Keith Primeau as well, was that he would hold out and didn't want to honor his contract.

The issue with Grigorenko seems to be more about his actual on-ice performance and whether he has the tools to harness his talent. That wasn't really an issue with Yashin.

 

[Andy007]

The comparison to Yashin, as I see it, has more to do with unreliabilty and uncertainty than point accumulation.

Which is why it's a comparison that doesn't make a lot of sense. Yashin's issue, and it's convenient to forget that this was true about guys like Mike Peca and Keith Primeau as well, was that he would hold out and didn't want to honor his contract.

The issue with Grigorenko seems to be more about his actual on-ice performance and whether he has the tools to harness his talent. That wasn't really an issue with Yashin.

I hate Peca. Not sure why you are trying to shoehorn in an anti-European slant into this discussion.

Anyway I didn't make the Yashin comparison, just thought maybe it was his refusal to play under contract and playing overseas that the OP associated Grigo with. It sounds more Kovalev-esque to me but again, all of this is based on inside information that may or may not be a valid criticism of Grigo. I'd take him in a heartbeat if he was available at 5.

 

[TML fan]

My money is on the Leafs taking Forsberg.

 

[Kin]

I hate Peca. Not sure why you are trying to shoehorn in an anti-European slant into this discussion.

The point I was making there had nothing to do with where those players were born(and the fact that you make that assumption is your business) but rather that Peca and Primeau are guys who are generally remembered positively and even as guys of good character despite their similar refusals. Holdouts weren't the least common thing in the world in those days.

Anyway I didn't make the Yashin comparison, just thought maybe it was his refusal to play under contract and playing overseas that the OP associated Grigo with.

But even then it doesn't make a ton of sense. Grigorenko hasn't held out and Yashin only ended up in the KHL after his team bought out his contract and the rest of the NHL more or less shrugged their shoulders at his availability.

 

[Andy007]

The point I was making there had nothing to do with where those players were born(and the fact that you make that assumption is your business) but rather that Peca and Primeau are guys who are generally remembered positively and even as guys of good character despite their similar refusals. Holdouts weren't the least common thing in the world in those days.

Where was the implication that Yashin was of bad character? Is that a sentiment that you have or assume everybody holds towards Yashin? I guess that is just your business as well huh.

 

[Kin]

Where was the implication that Yashin was of bad character?

Your suggestion that the thing linking the two of them was their "unreliability".

 

[Andy007]

Where was the implication that Yashin was of bad character?

Your suggestion that the thing linking the two of them was their "unreliability".

Not sure 'unreliability' or 'uncertainty' explicitly means 'bad character'

 

[Kin]

As a sort of more general point though I think the talk of Grigorenko is sort of revealing about the attitudes that make the NHL draft such a crapshoot.

Grigorenko turned 18 a month ago. He is, by most accounts, supremely talented. I would think that an organization that has faith in their coaches and players would welcome the challenge of getting the most out of a guy who has the potential to be a very good hockey player. Does Grigorenko have motivation issues? Maybe but, yikes, find me an 18 year old who doesn't have issues.

18 year olds aren't newborn babes but they're not fully formed people either. The idea isn't to draft a finished product, it's to draft someone who can be an asset to the franchise 5 or 10 or 15 years from now.

I don't know, maybe I've been roped in by the sports movie cliche of the super talented player who just needs the right coach but...well, that's a cliche for a reason. History is littered with examples of that happening. Being put off by Grigorenko's "risk" strikes me as kind of cowardly and more of a statement on how despite the millions of dollars at stake pro sports teams aren't any surer of their abilities to develop hockey players than anyone else.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't see how that follows. The Leafs have, by most accounts, a lot of depth in the system. They've drafted a lot of safe guys in recent years. They have a pressing need for elite talent. To me that says a team that's almost uniquely suited to draft a high risk/high reward prospect.

I agree. If Grigorenko is still on the board at 5, I have a hard time believing the Leafs will pass, as he's exactly what the system is lacking - a big, talented potential 1st line centre.

 

[Corn Flake]

I don't see how that follows. The Leafs have, by most accounts, a lot of depth in the system. They've drafted a lot of safe guys in recent years. They have a pressing need for elite talent. To me that says a team that's almost uniquely suited to draft a high risk/high reward prospect.

I agree. If Grigorenko is still on the board at 5, I have a hard time believing the Leafs will pass, as he's exactly what the system is lacking - a big, talented potential 1st line centre.

But one could say that Kadri is one of those elite level talent guys who hasn't got his head together or put in the off ice time to develop his physique to handle the NHL.  So in a way he's a similar case... all the talent in the world to be a "superstar in this league" but so far has not put it together.

Can the Leafs handle two of them in the last 3 drafts?

Not getting 1st round picks... high ones in particular... into your lineup has crippled this team in recent years... actually in forever.. at some point they need to turn these high picks into impact players, but adding more question marks adds to the risk they won't pan out.

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

Afternoon chaps. I'm quite keen on us obtaining another top 10 pick in the 6-10 range. What are our chances of that and who of these teams would be the most likely trading partner?

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Afternoon chaps. I'm quite keen on us obtaining another top 10 pick in the 6-10 range. What are our chances of that and who of these teams would be the most likely trading partner?

I read something about the Carolina pick maybe being in play, but I don't know what they want for it. That pick is #8 I think.

 

[Kin]

But one could say that Kadri is one of those elite level talent guys who hasn't got his head together or put in the off ice time to develop his physique to handle the NHL.  So in a way he's a similar case... all the talent in the world to be a "superstar in this league" but so far has not put it together.

Can the Leafs handle two of them in the last 3 drafts?

Not getting 1st round picks... high ones in particular... into your lineup has crippled this team in recent years... actually in forever.. at some point they need to turn these high picks into impact players, but adding more question marks adds to the risk they won't pan out.

I think there are two problems with that. First of all, I don't think that Kadri is a really good comparison here. We all paid a lot of attention to that draft and Kadri wasn't a guy who, like Grigorenko, was said to have top of the draft talent or to be a potential superstar. If memory serves, Kadri was actually labelled as a bit of a reach. Using the fact that Kadri's development has been slow to paint him in that light retroactively, to my mind, sort of muddies the issue. Cowan was the guy everybody was talking about as being the high risk/high reward pick because of his injury. Kadri, so far at least, has just been a guy who hasn't panned out.

The other problem there is that the reality of picking at #5, and this sort of relates to Kadri, is that there's no chance of adding a guy who isn't going to have some question marks. If the top 4 are Forsberg, Murray, Galchenyuk and Yakupov then there's nobody available who is seen as a sure thing impact player.

The issue of the safe pick vs. the risky one is a fair question but as I said and busta agreed with, the Leafs are in a situation where, without the presence of the elite talent we all agree they need, they're actually well suited to take that leap.

 

[Rebel_1812]

The comparison to Yashin, as I see it, has more to do with unreliabilty and uncertainty than point accumulation.

Which is why it's a comparison that doesn't make a lot of sense. Yashin's issue, and it's convenient to forget that this was true about guys like Mike Peca and Keith Primeau as well, was that he would hold out and didn't want to honor his contract.

The issue with Grigorenko seems to be more about his actual on-ice performance and whether he has the tools to harness his talent. That wasn't really an issue with Yashin.

I hate Peca. Not sure why you are trying to shoehorn in an anti-European slant into this discussion.

Anyway I didn't make the Yashin comparison, just thought maybe it was his refusal to play under contract and playing overseas that the OP associated Grigo with. It sounds more Kovalev-esque to me but again, all of this is based on inside information that may or may not be a valid criticism of Grigo. I'd take him in a heartbeat if he was available at 5.

I agree.  I really hope the leafs take Grigo who tore up the Q this year.  I'm going to be pissed if they pass on him for "speculative" reasons.

 

[Rebel_1812]

But one could say that Kadri is one of those elite level talent guys who hasn't got his head together or put in the off ice time to develop his physique to handle the NHL.  So in a way he's a similar case... all the talent in the world to be a "superstar in this league" but so far has not put it together.

Can the Leafs handle two of them in the last 3 drafts?

Not getting 1st round picks... high ones in particular... into your lineup has crippled this team in recent years... actually in forever.. at some point they need to turn these high picks into impact players, but adding more question marks adds to the risk they won't pan out.

I think there are two problems with that. First of all, I don't think that Kadri is a really good comparison here. We all paid a lot of attention to that draft and Kadri wasn't a guy who, like Grigorenko, was said to have top of the draft talent or to be a potential superstar. If memory serves, Kadri was actually labelled as a bit of a reach. Using the fact that Kadri's development has been slow to paint him in that light retroactively, to my mind, sort of muddies the issue. Cowan was the guy everybody was talking about as being the high risk/high reward pick because of his injury. Kadri, so far at least, has just been a guy who hasn't panned out.

The other problem there is that the reality of picking at #5, and this sort of relates to Kadri, is that there's no chance of adding a guy who isn't going to have some question marks. If the top 4 are Forsberg, Murray, Galchenyuk and Yakupov then there's nobody available who is seen as a sure thing impact player.

The issue of the safe pick vs. the risky one is a fair question but as I said and busta agreed with, the Leafs are in a situation where, without the presence of the elite talent we all agree they need, they're actually well suited to take that leap.

I would say Dumba would be an impact player if that was the top 4 in addition to grigo.  His goal scoring and hitting ability are better then any other dman in the draft.

 

[Kin]

I would say Dumba would be an impact player if that was the top 4 in addition to grigo.

I'm not saying he won't be. I'm saying that he's not generally seen as a sure thing all-star because really, outside of Yakupov, people don't seem to think that about anyone in this draft.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Afternoon chaps. I'm quite keen on us obtaining another top 10 pick in the 6-10 range. What are our chances of that and who of these teams would be the most likely trading partner?

I read something about the Carolina pick maybe being in play, but I don't know what they want for it. That pick is #8 I think.

Jordan Staal 

Puck Daddy did a good piece/interview/FAQ on Grigorenko this morning.  It addresses some of the usual questions with answers from the man/boy himself:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/mikhail-grigorenko-puck-daddy-2012-nhl-draft-faq-150840949--nhl.html

I thought Cox's tweet re. Western GM saying he believes Grigorenko is 20 and not 18 (adding to diminshed trust of GMs).  Don't know if there is any validity to it

As far as someone stating he didn't visit Toronto as part of his exploratory tour, I'm guessing he got a good look at the city during the combine as his twitter feed aludes to:

Mikhail Grigorenko‏@MGriggy25
"Had a great time in Toronto at the #NHLcombine but feels good to be going back home till the draft!!"

https://twitter.com/#%21/MGriggy25/

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't think I'm going out on a limb by saying I think we'll wind up with either Grigorenko, Galchenyuk, or Forsberg (assuming we keep the pick) and perhaps rather oddly, I really can't say I feel more strongly about one over another. I suppose that's a good thing.

Burke is in no position to roll the dice on what looks to be the biggest risk/reward pick of the entire draft in Grigorenko. I would be very surprised if he took the gamble on this guy myself.

My guess is that their short list includes:
Yakupov
Galchenyuk
Forsberg
Murray
Dumba

Your top-5 list includes a forward who missed pretty much an entire season with a knee injury and a defenceman who plays a style of game is suited for somebody 20lbs bigger than he is. I'd say both are biggest risks than a big, dominant 18-year old centre who might be lazy.