A few random thoughts on the potential of a one for one JVR/L. Schenn trade:
I remember reading an article about the development time of players based on size when Joe Thornton and Sergei Samsonov were both drafted by Boston in the first round. The author produce a a lot of evidence that clubs need to be patient with the bigger guys, because they took longer to figure out how to use their size, while the smaller players tended to rely on speed.
In the first few years after the draft, many fans and media thought that Samsonov was the better player; now it is clear that Thornton is head and shoulders (pun intended) above Samsonov. I believe that JVR still has a lot of upside and may develop into an elite forward.
It is also well known that defenseman take longer to develop than forwards. Thus, I am not too concerned that Luke is developing slower than some of us might have hoped. I can see him developing into a solid shut down defenseman, but do not see much chance of him developing into an elite player. In other words, I believe that the JVR and Schenn have similar value now, but JVR has more upside.
Another factor to keep in mind is the salary expectations of players based on their draft position. Early picks in the first round, including both Luke and JVR, will be paid at the top end of the salary range during the earlier years in their career. Based on performance to date, who should be paid more: Schenn or Gunnarson?
If Gunnarson had been picked in the first round, instead of the seventh, he would be making a lot more money than he is.
In the salary cap era, teams need to have solid players who are not making top dollars. You have to have guys like Gunnarson, Aulie, Franson, etc. who can play in the NHL at relatively low cost so that more money can be spent on elite players. I would not be in favour of expending these assets for a higher priced asset (such as JVR), unless I was sure about the upside of JVR.
In other words, I would trade Schenn for JVR straight up, because I think that they have similar value right now, but JVR has more upside. I would not be trading multiple assets (Franson, Aulie, etc.) because it would be expending low cost players for a high cost one who is not a lock to become elite.
In his recent interview, Burke said that a GM earns his salary when his advisors are split on whether or not a trade should be made. If there is in fact an offer of Luke for JVR, it may be that half of the Toronto brain trust are in favour and half are opposed.
It is interesting that this comment was made in the same interview that Burke talked about trading players of a similar age and ability if you had a shortage in one position and a surplus in another and also said that his priority was to get bigger at the forward position.