OldTimeHockey
Active member
Frank E said:
At least 34%!!!!!!
2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
- Thread starter herman
- Start date
At least 34%!!!!!!
Let me try another way.
Stacked PP1 has a 20% chance of scoring.
Not so stacked PP2 has a 10% chance of scoring.
If PP1 gets off the ice around 1 minute if they don't score, then the coach is inherently giving them about 50/50 split in ice time. That is my issue...you are giving PP1 and PP2 equal opportunity to score in terms of ice time, yet there is a significant difference in skill. My solve is that you either have to balance the skill OR over weight on the ice time allocations to PP1 (i.e. they don't get off at 1 minute...they get off at 1:30 or so).
The numbers you are looking at are absolute and will be different because of either the PP1 or PP2 scoring (which of course will happen). Its inherent in those numbers that PP1 will have more time on the ice (as I showed above).
Stacked PP1 has a 20% chance of scoring.
Not so stacked PP2 has a 10% chance of scoring.
If PP1 gets off the ice around 1 minute if they don't score, then the coach is inherently giving them about 50/50 split in ice time. That is my issue...you are giving PP1 and PP2 equal opportunity to score in terms of ice time, yet there is a significant difference in skill. My solve is that you either have to balance the skill OR over weight on the ice time allocations to PP1 (i.e. they don't get off at 1 minute...they get off at 1:30 or so).
The numbers you are looking at are absolute and will be different because of either the PP1 or PP2 scoring (which of course will happen). Its inherent in those numbers that PP1 will have more time on the ice (as I showed above).
Highlander
Active member
Tampa Bay had no shots on Goal in the 2nd period playing against Carolina, only 2 in the 3rd and 13 overall. How dae do dat?
Highlander
Active member
;D ;D ;D ;D ;DZee said:
dappleganger
Active member
pmrules said:
We need the split when the powerplay fails to score.
pmrules said:
There is a hidden assumption here ? that PP1 effectiveness is a linear function of time. PP1 effectiveness may decrease after 1 minute of play time due to fatigue.
But I agree that it seems likely PP1 could last a little longer.
But I also like the idea of letting Marner/Tavares/Reilly/Johnsson take responsibility for most of the PP1 puck carrying and board battles. Matthews stands around and shoots and plays for nearly 2 min with both PP1 and PP2.
Strangelove
New member
So is this going to be another year in which the Leafs play below their talent at home because of poor line-up management by Babcock? The systemic issues we saw last night are the same issues we've seen for year.s. I'm sure Babcock's response will be "they missed Hyman. He's a pretty good player, huh?"
On an unrelated note, the early returns on Marner are not good. Seeing him play beside players like Point and Kucherov (and Matthews!) makes it easy to see that there are certain dimensions Marner's game lacks. And yet here we are, paying him more than any other (almost any other?) winger in the league.
On an unrelated note, the early returns on Marner are not good. Seeing him play beside players like Point and Kucherov (and Matthews!) makes it easy to see that there are certain dimensions Marner's game lacks. And yet here we are, paying him more than any other (almost any other?) winger in the league.
ZBBM
Active member
What last night's game brought into focus (again) is whether the Leafs D is good enough to win a Cup. Not because it is as bad as it was last night ? except for Holl & Sandin they all managed to converge on Awful at the same time.
But even playing at their best, does anyone here really think the Leafs can win it all with the defense, even after Dermott returns?
I'm skeptical there's a convincing argument here, but maybe there is?
But even playing at their best, does anyone here really think the Leafs can win it all with the defense, even after Dermott returns?
I'm skeptical there's a convincing argument here, but maybe there is?
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
I think our defence is comparable to 3 of the past 4 Cup winners (PIT x2, WSH).
herman
Well-known member
https://twitter.com/chartinghockey/status/1182625409084674052
The sky always looks like it?s falling when we?re funlucky.
I think we?ve played an uneven 5 games in a fairly short stretch right off the hop. Lots to be encouraged by, and lots of work left to do. The team overhaul is bound to require some settling time.
What I?d like to see is the Leafs start pushing their ?floor? higher as the season progresses. They get emotionally and mentally down when things bounce the other way and come away from the game they know how to play to try to eke out more goals. They need to build their consistent default level of play up with routine puck wins, zone entry with possession, and better communication on defensive sort-outs.
The sky always looks like it?s falling when we?re funlucky.
I think we?ve played an uneven 5 games in a fairly short stretch right off the hop. Lots to be encouraged by, and lots of work left to do. The team overhaul is bound to require some settling time.
What I?d like to see is the Leafs start pushing their ?floor? higher as the season progresses. They get emotionally and mentally down when things bounce the other way and come away from the game they know how to play to try to eke out more goals. They need to build their consistent default level of play up with routine puck wins, zone entry with possession, and better communication on defensive sort-outs.
Neat-ish fact that I just found: Sandin has yet to be on the ice for a 5-on-5 goal against so far this season. Ditto for Holl, Marincin was on for 1 but that was with Muzzin (possibly after a PK expired?). So Sandin-Holl/Marincin haven't given up a goal yet.
ZBBM
Active member
CarltonTheBear said:
OK. I don't think it quite rises to that level because we don't have a good mix of skillsets back there. Outside of Muzzin, who's been pretty inconsistent, our best players are too much alike (Rielly, Dermott, now Barrie). Maybe Sandin will continue to impress and help change that.
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
Just to lay it out there, this is what those Cup champs used in the playoffs:
17-18 Caps
Orlov-Niskanen
Kempny-Carlson
Orpik-Djoos
I was a big fan of those top-3, especially since this was before Niskanen's down year. But I think that group is pretty darn comparable to Rielly-Barrie-Muzzin, we might arguably even have a slight advantage. Kempny is certainly a defenceman who exists, but I can't really vouch for him aside from that. Their bottom pairing was out of the NHL a year later, Orpik to retirement and Djoos to the AHL.
16-17 Penguins
Dumoulin-Hainsey
Cole-Schultz
Daley-Maatta
This is arguably the worst defence group to ever win a Cup.
15-16 Penguins
Dumoulin-Letang
Cole-Schultz
Lovejoy-Maatta
This one had Letang, which is a pretty huge bonus. But even still Letang and Schultz are both very risk-adverse defencemen who can give up as much as they get. Then they have Dumoulin who is more of an all-around guy. So again a top-3 that sounds/feels pretty similar to ours. Is the rest of their D better than ours because they don't have similar "skillsets" (i.e. they aren't skilled)?
Guilt Trip
Active member
But he is better, much like Matthews is better. Something is up with Marner. His stats aren't bad but he looks terrible. Constantly giving the puck away, making bad passes. Just not like him.Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said: