Armchair GM 2017-2018

[Coco-puffs]

I was thinking that too, but what does Pittsburgh have at this point to offer up other than late first round picks?

By not trading Bozak by now, the idea that you're going to get substantially more for him than a late first round pick is pretty tenuous.

Or, you know, the value of having him in our lineup all year might just outweigh that late first round pick?  Especially if your options for 3rd line center are Brooks or Aaltonen  (if Babcock doesn't think Nylander is ready to play C)

 

[Kin]

Or, you know, the value of having him in our lineup all year might just outweigh that late first round pick?  Especially if your options for 3rd line center are Brooks or Aaltonen  (if Babcock doesn't think Nylander is ready to play C)

I think the team has more options there. You could bump Moore up to 3rd and use Fehr as the 4th line C in a pinch. Likewise you could use a first round pick to potentially shop around for a 3rd line C who might be around a little longer.

Or, you know, alternately Mike Babcock could maybe consider the idea of using a temporarily sub-optimal lineup that would help the team's prospect base instead of one that matches exactly what he wants now now now.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think you can make the argument he's a better option on the wing, but Marleau can also play centre.

 

[Kin]

I think you can make the argument he's a better option on the wing, but Marleau can also play centre.

I think if push came to shove there are a number of guys you could get away with there. Marleau and Nylander being two, Komarov being a third...

Honestly, find a guy who can skate with Marner and JVR and isn't Stonehands McGee and what's the low end point total? 40? 45?

 

[herman]

Marner's line isn't all that centre dependent anyway. Hyman is also a centre, btw  8)

 

[Coco-puffs]

Or, you know, the value of having him in our lineup all year might just outweigh that late first round pick?  Especially if your options for 3rd line center are Brooks or Aaltonen  (if Babcock doesn't think Nylander is ready to play C)

I think the team has more options there. You could bump Moore up to 3rd and use Fehr as the 4th line C in a pinch. Likewise you could use a first round pick to potentially shop around for a 3rd line C who might be around a little longer.

Or, you know, alternately Mike Babcock could maybe consider the idea of using a temporarily sub-optimal lineup that would help the team's prospect base instead of one that matches exactly what he wants now now now.

a)  Dominic Moore is not someone you want playing above the 4th line. 
b)  Sure, you could try and flip that 1st rounder back to someone else for someone who will be here longer-term.  But, if your long term plan is to play Nylander there then why?  Also, I think that type of move is much easier said than done.
c)  Someone mentioned Marleau... someone in the analytics community pointed out his results in the middle have not been good for a couple of years now and should only be considered a winger going forward.
c)  Sub-optimal lineup- I don't think the Leafs have that large a margin for getting into the playoffs that they should go sub-optimal.  Especially if we aren't as lucky on the injury front.

With all that said- I do like the idea of Nylander moving to center now and gaining that asset.  Also opens a spot on wing for one our our younger players who deserve it (Leivo, Kapanen).  The problem is, what happens if we have an injury to Kadri or Matthews.  You've already moved Nylander there, who probably needs sheltered minutes down the middle, and now you are going into Aaltonen and Brooks territory.  Bozak provides insurance there that might be worth not trading him for a late first round pick.

 

[bustaheims]

Bozak provides insurance there that might be worth not trading him for a late first round pick.

Maybe, but that's some pretty short-term thinking. Bozak is extremely unlikely to be re-signed, the team already needs to be working towards resolving the scenarios you've laid out. As others have pointed out, there are plenty short-term injury fill-ins already in the organization; and, should Kadri or Matthews suffer a more significant injury, they're in a bad spot, regardless of whether or not Bozak is on-board. All Bozak does is mitigate some of the damage - and likely not enough to keep them in a position in the standings that's desirable, which really makes the value of keeping him as insurance virtually nil. Basically, from the looks of things, all scenarios point to getting a quality asset like a 1st round pick now being the better option for the team.

 

[Bullfrog]

I've grown to really appreciate Bozak. But if someone's offering a late first, I'll go pack his bags for him.

 

[rdowdall]

I was thinking that too, but what does Pittsburgh have at this point to offer up other than late first round picks?

By not trading Bozak by now, the idea that you're going to get substantially more for him than a late first round pick is pretty tenuous.

I get that Bozak isn't going to bring in a truckload.  Ideally, he would be dealt for a close to ready prospect rather than a pick, which is where my previous statement is coming from.  In that case dealing with a team like Nashville would make more sense.  However, I get the whole it takes two scenario when it comes to trades. 

It would be nice for management to make a statement with Bozak and JVR, rather than just leaving the future sort of twisting in the wind.  My fear is that they sign JVR to a long term 6-7 million dollar deal for next season.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Bozak provides insurance there that might be worth not trading him for a late first round pick.

Maybe, but that's some pretty short-term thinking. Bozak is extremely unlikely to be re-signed, the team already needs to be working towards resolving the scenarios you've laid out. As others have pointed out, there are plenty short-term injury fill-ins already in the organization; and, should Kadri or Matthews suffer a more significant injury, they're in a bad spot, regardless of whether or not Bozak is on-board. All Bozak does is mitigate some of the damage - and likely not enough to keep them in a position in the standings that's desirable, which really makes the value of keeping him as insurance virtually nil. Basically, from the looks of things, all scenarios point to getting a quality asset like a 1st round pick now being the better option for the team.

Management's decisions shouldn't entirely be based on long-term thinking.  There needs to be a balance.  Considering this team has a window of opportunity now, with all of the big three on entry-level deals, short term thinking isn't a bad thing.  I believe the odds-makers have the Leafs in the Top 10 to win the cup at 14-1, tied with Tampa for best in our division.  Trade Bozak away and that takes a hit.  His value as "insurance for injuries" is much more than nil.  Kadri goes down in February for 4-6 weeks:  Matthews - Bozak - Nylander will probably still get you in the playoffs.  Matthews - Nylander - Brooks/Aaltonen?  I have my doubts.  With Kadri returning for the playoffs, you are back to a contender.  Don't get in, doesn't matter if you have a healthy lineup at the end of the season.

I think there is too much belief that losing players to UFA is a terrible thing and you should always extract value when you can.  That is entirely true for a team that isn't expected to make the playoffs.  Even for some bubble teams, it probably makes sense.  But, Top-10 team?  Most top-10 teams try and bolster their lineups at the trade deadline- guess what they do- they trade late 1st round picks for players who's deals are about to expire.

The Leafs will NEVER have the depth they have this year.  The big 3, once their entry-level deals expire, are going to command too much cap space and unless UFA's are taking big discounts to come here for a shot at the cup.  Jake Gardiner only has 2 years left on his current deal.  Might as well go for it these next two years.  They aren't mortgaging their future to do so.  I'm not advocating for them to trade their 1st round picks to bolster the lineup at this stage- that would definitely be too short term in thinking. 

 

[bustaheims]

Management's decisions shouldn't entirely be based on long-term thinking.  There needs to be a balance.  Considering this team has a window of opportunity now, with all of the big three on entry-level deals, short term thinking isn't a bad thing.  I believe the odds-makers have the Leafs in the Top 10 to win the cup at 14-1, tied with Tampa for best in our division.  Trade Bozak away and that takes a hit.  His value as "insurance for injuries" is much more than nil.  Kadri goes down in February for 4-6 weeks:  Matthews - Bozak - Nylander will probably still get you in the playoffs.  Matthews - Nylander - Brooks/Aaltonen?  I have my doubts.  With Kadri returning for the playoffs, you are back to a contender.  Don't get in, doesn't matter if you have a healthy lineup at the end of the season.

Yeah, on no level do I buy the idea that a line flanked by JvR and Marner - or even Marleau/Kapanen/whoever would be bumped up if one of JvR and Marner takes Nylander's spot of the top line - will take a significant hit in terms of level of contribution if Bozak is replaced by Moore (who is a more than capable 3rd line centre) or another reasonable NHL C, nor do I all accept that Nylander wouldn't at least equal - if not significantly out-do - Bozak's potential production filling in for Kadri.

In fact, I'd wager that, with the wingers the Leafs have available, Matthews-Nylander-Moore would lead to as good, if not better, results than Matthews-Bozak-Nylander.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Management's decisions shouldn't entirely be based on long-term thinking.  There needs to be a balance.  Considering this team has a window of opportunity now, with all of the big three on entry-level deals, short term thinking isn't a bad thing.  I believe the odds-makers have the Leafs in the Top 10 to win the cup at 14-1, tied with Tampa for best in our division.  Trade Bozak away and that takes a hit.  His value as "insurance for injuries" is much more than nil.  Kadri goes down in February for 4-6 weeks:  Matthews - Bozak - Nylander will probably still get you in the playoffs.  Matthews - Nylander - Brooks/Aaltonen?  I have my doubts.  With Kadri returning for the playoffs, you are back to a contender.  Don't get in, doesn't matter if you have a healthy lineup at the end of the season.

Yeah, on no level do I buy the idea that a line flanked by JvR and Marner - or even Marleau/Kapanen/whoever would be bumped up if one of JvR and Marner takes Nylander's spot of the top line - will take a significant hit in terms of level of contribution if Bozak is replaced by Moore (who is a more than capable 3rd line centre) or another reasonable NHL C, nor do I all accept that Nylander wouldn't at least equal - if not significantly out-do - Bozak's potential production filling in for Kadri.

In fact, I'd wager that, with the wingers the Leafs have available, Matthews-Nylander-Moore would lead to as good, if not better, results than Matthews-Bozak-Nylander.

Please provide something more than "I'd wager" to prove that Moore >= Bozak.

https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/903318283029540864

Dominic Moore is nothing more than a decent 4th line center.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/K7NJ7B3HH?:display_count=yes

 

[Crucialness Key]

Management's decisions shouldn't entirely be based on long-term thinking.  There needs to be a balance.  Considering this team has a window of opportunity now, with all of the big three on entry-level deals, short term thinking isn't a bad thing.  I believe the odds-makers have the Leafs in the Top 10 to win the cup at 14-1, tied with Tampa for best in our division.  Trade Bozak away and that takes a hit.  His value as "insurance for injuries" is much more than nil.  Kadri goes down in February for 4-6 weeks:  Matthews - Bozak - Nylander will probably still get you in the playoffs.  Matthews - Nylander - Brooks/Aaltonen?  I have my doubts.  With Kadri returning for the playoffs, you are back to a contender.  Don't get in, doesn't matter if you have a healthy lineup at the end of the season.

Yeah, on no level do I buy the idea that a line flanked by JvR and Marner - or even Marleau/Kapanen/whoever would be bumped up if one of JvR and Marner takes Nylander's spot of the top line - will take a significant hit in terms of level of contribution if Bozak is replaced by Moore (who is a more than capable 3rd line centre) or another reasonable NHL C, nor do I all accept that Nylander wouldn't at least equal - if not significantly out-do - Bozak's potential production filling in for Kadri.

In fact, I'd wager that, with the wingers the Leafs have available, Matthews-Nylander-Moore would lead to as good, if not better, results than Matthews-Bozak-Nylander.

Please provide something more than "I'd wager" to prove that Moore >= Bozak.

https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/903318283029540864

Dominic Moore is nothing more than a decent 4th line center.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/K7NJ7B3HH?:display_count=yes

Why is Marner's WAR so awful??

 

[Zee]

Management's decisions shouldn't entirely be based on long-term thinking.  There needs to be a balance.  Considering this team has a window of opportunity now, with all of the big three on entry-level deals, short term thinking isn't a bad thing.  I believe the odds-makers have the Leafs in the Top 10 to win the cup at 14-1, tied with Tampa for best in our division.  Trade Bozak away and that takes a hit.  His value as "insurance for injuries" is much more than nil.  Kadri goes down in February for 4-6 weeks:  Matthews - Bozak - Nylander will probably still get you in the playoffs.  Matthews - Nylander - Brooks/Aaltonen?  I have my doubts.  With Kadri returning for the playoffs, you are back to a contender.  Don't get in, doesn't matter if you have a healthy lineup at the end of the season.

Yeah, on no level do I buy the idea that a line flanked by JvR and Marner - or even Marleau/Kapanen/whoever would be bumped up if one of JvR and Marner takes Nylander's spot of the top line - will take a significant hit in terms of level of contribution if Bozak is replaced by Moore (who is a more than capable 3rd line centre) or another reasonable NHL C, nor do I all accept that Nylander wouldn't at least equal - if not significantly out-do - Bozak's potential production filling in for Kadri.

In fact, I'd wager that, with the wingers the Leafs have available, Matthews-Nylander-Moore would lead to as good, if not better, results than Matthews-Bozak-Nylander.

Please provide something more than "I'd wager" to prove that Moore >= Bozak.

https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/903318283029540864

Dominic Moore is nothing more than a decent 4th line center.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/K7NJ7B3HH?:display_count=yes

Why is Marner's WAR so awful??

There you go, every single player on the Leafs is better than Marner. 

 

[Coco-puffs]

Management's decisions shouldn't entirely be based on long-term thinking.  There needs to be a balance.  Considering this team has a window of opportunity now, with all of the big three on entry-level deals, short term thinking isn't a bad thing.  I believe the odds-makers have the Leafs in the Top 10 to win the cup at 14-1, tied with Tampa for best in our division.  Trade Bozak away and that takes a hit.  His value as "insurance for injuries" is much more than nil.  Kadri goes down in February for 4-6 weeks:  Matthews - Bozak - Nylander will probably still get you in the playoffs.  Matthews - Nylander - Brooks/Aaltonen?  I have my doubts.  With Kadri returning for the playoffs, you are back to a contender.  Don't get in, doesn't matter if you have a healthy lineup at the end of the season.

Yeah, on no level do I buy the idea that a line flanked by JvR and Marner - or even Marleau/Kapanen/whoever would be bumped up if one of JvR and Marner takes Nylander's spot of the top line - will take a significant hit in terms of level of contribution if Bozak is replaced by Moore (who is a more than capable 3rd line centre) or another reasonable NHL C, nor do I all accept that Nylander wouldn't at least equal - if not significantly out-do - Bozak's potential production filling in for Kadri.

In fact, I'd wager that, with the wingers the Leafs have available, Matthews-Nylander-Moore would lead to as good, if not better, results than Matthews-Bozak-Nylander.

Please provide something more than "I'd wager" to prove that Moore >= Bozak.

https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/903318283029540864

Dominic Moore is nothing more than a decent 4th line center.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/K7NJ7B3HH?:display_count=yes

Why is Marner's WAR so awful??

I actually dug into that a little bit when that chart was posted because it didn't make sense to me.  But a big component of WAR is shot differential WOWY.  For Marner, who played with Bozak-JvR for 90% of the season they had fairly even shot distribution (ie 50.5-51% corsi).  However, when he was injured/sick and Brown filled in:  JvR-Bozak-Brown had something like 56% corsi.  Furthermore, Marner took a number of shifts with Matthews early in the season and they got killed possession wise.  (Marner CF% away from JvR is 45%)  That gives JVR and Bozak big boosts because their WOWY showed they were better without Marner.  And it makes Marner look back because JvR and Bozak had better numbers away from him. 

Its a problem with some analytics- deciding that Marner is BAD at shot differential because 10% of his time away from them was bad and 10% of their time away from him was good is definitely flawed to some extent.  Huge sample size issue there.  It works better for players who spend even amounts of time with different players.  Nylander, for instance, fully deserves his high ranking as he boosted shot differentials no matter which line he played on- and his sample sizes on the different lines are decent in size.

 

[bustaheims]

Why is Marner's WAR so awful??

Honestly, a lot of those numbers really make me question the validity and value of that chart. Gardiner's WAR is like 0.2; Rielly's is somewhere between -0.5 and 0.5 and virtually the same as Marincin's; Marner's is negative, as is Zaitsev's; Hyman's is almost as high as Matthews'. There's too many things that are so obviously not a reflection of reality for it to be used as reasonable support for an argument.

 

[Crucialness Key]

https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/903318283029540864

Dominic Moore is nothing more than a decent 4th line center.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/K7NJ7B3HH?:display_count=yes

Why is Marner's WAR so awful??

I actually dug into that a little bit when that chart was posted because it didn't make sense to me.  But a big component of WAR is shot differential WOWY.  For Marner, who played with Bozak-JvR for 90% of the season they had fairly even shot distribution (ie 50.5-51% corsi).  However, when he was injured/sick and Brown filled in:  JvR-Bozak-Brown had something like 56% corsi.  Furthermore, Marner took a number of shifts with Matthews early in the season and they got killed possession wise.  (Marner CF% away from JvR is 45%)  That gives JVR and Bozak big boosts because their WOWY showed they were better without Marner.  And it makes Marner look back because JvR and Bozak had better numbers away from him. 

Its a problem with some analytics- deciding that Marner is BAD at shot differential because 10% of his time away from them was bad and 10% of their time away from him was good is definitely flawed to some extent.  Huge sample size issue there.  It works better for players who spend even amounts of time with different players.  Nylander, for instance, fully deserves his high ranking as he boosted shot differentials no matter which line he played on- and his sample sizes on the different lines are decent in size.

Ah, that rascally sample size, mucking things up again.  Thanks for looking into that. 

 

[bustaheims]

Please provide something more than "I'd wager" to prove that Moore >= Bozak.

That's quite clearly not the argument I'm making. I'm saying the line of JvR-Moore-Marner would not contribute substantially less to the team's success than the line of JvR-Bozak-Marner over a short period, because JvR and Marner drive that line's success, not Bozak - especially in light of the fact that Nylander replacing Kadri instead of Bozak would almost certainly contribute more.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Please provide something more than "I'd wager" to prove that Moore >= Bozak.

That's quite clearly not the argument I'm making. I'm saying the line of JvR-Moore-Marner would not contribute substantially less to the team's success than the line of JvR-Bozak-Marner over a short period, because JvR and Marner drive that line's success, not Bozak - especially in light of the fact that Nylander replacing Kadri instead of Bozak would almost certainly contribute more.

Did you just tell me that {Matthews, Nylander, Moore} > {Matthews - Nylander - Bozak}? 
 
In both scenario's Nylander is replacing Kadri when he's injured.  Its a discussion of whether Bozak is replaceable by Moore and I still think you are nuts if you say so.

Also, nevermind the downgrade happening on the right side prior to the injury.  Nobody that would come in and replace Nylander on the right side is up to his level.  Moving Marner into his spot just creates a hole where Marner was.

 

[Kin]

a)  Dominic Moore is not someone you want playing above the 4th line.

It's not ideal, sure. But I don't think it's a catastrophe. 

b)  Sure, you could try and flip that 1st rounder back to someone else for someone who will be here longer-term.  But, if your long term plan is to play Nylander there then why?  Also, I think that type of move is much easier said than done.

Because you're asset-building. If and when Nylander does eventually transition over to Centre you'd then have a superfluous asset, whether it's Kadri or this hypothetical new #3 C.

c)  Sub-optimal lineup- I don't think the Leafs have that large a margin for getting into the playoffs that they should go sub-optimal.  Especially if we aren't as lucky on the injury front.

I feel like there's sort of an inherent contradiction here. On the one hand, the Leafs are so good they should be doing some short term "How do we maximize our chances at the cup immediately" thinking. On the other, they're so fragile that trading Bozak(an ok #3 C) seriously jeopardizes those plans.