First game home for Winnipeg after a looong road trip. Usually a telltale sign of a letdown game for a team. Also, 3 of their last 4 games at home were losses (they beat Buffalo, so that win barely counts) so some of that home ice invincibility might be wearing off.
The Leafs will be a bit tired after last night but Wilson rolled the lines and defense pairs so it might not be as bad as it could have been.
It probably comes down to the Jets home crowd noise, and whether they can still influence calls like that last completely ridiculous game. I'm sure the NHL has had a few quiet chats with the refs about that since then.