Getzlaf and Ryan "in play" according to Bob Murray

[Erndog]

I actually think this is one of those scenarios where, if Getzlaf does get traded, people might be surprised at what he gets dealt for. Getzlaf's a good player, no doubt, but he's not exactly young and he's struggling. If I'm a NHL GM I'm not going to trade a guy who's young and already lights out like RNH or Seguin and I'd be pretty hesitant about trading guys just below that level like Benn or, say, Karlsson.

Any swap of Getzlaf for established guys would have to be for an established player of equal calibre who's similarly struggling. Even then though, do the Ducks get much better with a Getzlaf for Staal deal? Or would they be more or less in the exact same position.

If Getzlaf does get dealt, I have a hunch it's going to be a for a collection of second tier kind of young players/prospects/picks. I think Erndog's list is a good one in terms of what the Leafs have in that regard but I don't know if there are any players on it who are having really good NHL seasons right now. I don't think guys like Connolly or MacArthur would have any value at all in that conversation.

I agree with everything you said.  I do think though, there are some young, good players out there who teams might be willing to give up that we can't match.

I'm just throwing this out there, but if Philly calls (and we know Philly, they always want in on the big names) and says "JVR + a 1st or big prospect" for one of the big 3, you just have to think Anaheim would put that at the forefront automatically.  And it's a deal I can certainly see Philly wanting to make also. 

So, while I agree with you that a straight swap for someone like Staal doesn't do anything for anyone, I'm sure there are some teams out there willing to pony up to get one of the big 3. 

 

[maplesyrup]

Yeah, I've been thinking about (ugh) Boston... Krejci, Hamilton, Caron I'd say gets it done for Getzlaf (or something like that.) I think it would be a good deal for both teams.

 

[Kin]

I agree with everything you said.  I do think though, there are some young, good players out there who teams might be willing to give up that we can't match.

Oh, I agree completely. It's why I said that it really hurts the Leafs that of the guys in the NHL on that list none are having really big years. Kulemin last year would have been a big chip. This year he's got value but not the kind you can build around.

The thing about Philly, and I'd agree that JVR would be the kind of second tier asset the Leafs would be hardpressed to match, is that if the deal is JVR and another top prospect, let's say Couturier for simplicity, you start pushing up against a point where the deal starts becoming questionable from Philly's side. That was my point. Getzlaf is a really solid player but he may go in a deal similar to Carter or Richards or even smaller.

I think there are a lot of interesting possibilities for where Getzlaf ends up. St. Louis, Dallas, Minnesota. Florida is swimming in talent and could use a centrepiece. All of those teams could put together packages that the Leafs would be very hardpressed to match.

 

[Zee]

Yeah, I've been thinking about (ugh) Boston... Krejci, Hamilton, Caron I'd say gets it done for Getzlaf (or something like that.) I think it would be a good deal for both teams.

Boston is scary looking enough without adding another stud like Getzlaf.  That just wouldn't be fair.

 

[Peter D.]

I actually think this is one of those scenarios where, if Getzlaf does get traded, people might be surprised at what he gets dealt for. Getzlaf's a good player, no doubt, but he's not exactly young and he's struggling. If I'm a NHL GM I'm not going to trade a guy who's young and already lights out like RNH or Seguin and I'd be pretty hesitant about trading guys just below that level like Benn or, say, Karlsson.

Absolutely.  There will be no way any of those types would be moved for Getzlaf.  I'm more intrigued though at what the sum of the parts will be. 

Furthermore, I keep thinking of the absolutely low end of the spectrum as we saw Joe Thornton, similar age at the time of his trade, go for pretty much nothing. 

 

[Corn Flake]

Yeah, I've been thinking about (ugh) Boston... Krejci, Hamilton, Caron I'd say gets it done for Getzlaf (or something like that.) I think it would be a good deal for both teams.

Boston is scary looking enough without adding another stud like Getzlaf.  That just wouldn't be fair.

Oh god.  Scary is right.  I doubt they mess with what they have though. Would be kind of risky even for a Getzlaf type guy coming in.  They would be more prudent to save up their assets to the deadline in case they end up with an injury somehwere.

(although I am quietly believing that they are going to run out of gas at some point late in the season or early in the playoffs... but I'm not saying that out loud just yet)

 

[Kin]

Yeah, I've been thinking about (ugh) Boston... Krejci, Hamilton, Caron I'd say gets it done for Getzlaf (or something like that.) I think it would be a good deal for both teams.

Boston is scary looking enough without adding another stud like Getzlaf.  That just wouldn't be fair.

But that's almost why it doesn't make sense for Boston. They give up serious prospect depth and a guy who they know, like and has good chemistry with his linemates for the hope that Getzlaf turns it on after a change of scenery?

For Anaheim, I mean, they add some nice pieces but Krejci is a pretty uninspiring centrepiece and they don't save money.

 

[Zee]

(although I am quietly believing that they are going to run out of gas at some point late in the season or early in the playoffs... but I'm not saying that out loud just yet)

I'll say it out loud.  Leafs and Bruins meet in the 1st round of the playoffs, Leafs take them out like the scrubs they are similar to how we used to beat the Sens in the playoffs after being dominated in the season series.

 

[Andy007]

(although I am quietly believing that they are going to run out of gas at some point late in the season or early in the playoffs... but I'm not saying that out loud just yet)

I'll say it out loud.  Leafs and Bruins meet in the 1st round of the playoffs, Leafs take them out like the scrubs they are similar to how we used to beat the Sens in the playoffs after being dominated in the season series.

Those Ottawa teams, though, had some legitimate flaws such as questionable goaltending and weak physical play. I don't see any such flaws on this Boston team.

 

[Zee]

(although I am quietly believing that they are going to run out of gas at some point late in the season or early in the playoffs... but I'm not saying that out loud just yet)

I'll say it out loud.  Leafs and Bruins meet in the 1st round of the playoffs, Leafs take them out like the scrubs they are similar to how we used to beat the Sens in the playoffs after being dominated in the season series.

Those Ottawa teams, though, had some legitimate flaws such as questionable goaltending and weak physical play. I don't see any such flaws on this Boston team.

Oh yeah?  Well whatever

(I was only kidding to try and get some "rah rah" going)

 

[Kin]

Furthermore, I keep thinking of the absolutely low end of the spectrum as we saw Joe Thornton, similar age at the time of his trade, go for pretty much nothing.

I don't think we ever got the full story on the Thornton deal because, like you say, it was just too much of a crazy trade to be a case where O'Connell really did his job in that situation(and it's worth mentioning that he didn't keep his job much longer after that deal). You'll just never convince me that O'Connell put Thornton out there and really drove hard for the best possible return.

Getzlaf may be moved for a heck of a package. If I were Florida I'd be fine with dealing a good chunk of all those prospects they've been stockpiling the last few years. Like I said though, I just very much doubt any of the pieces moved in a deal for Getzlaf are real A-1 can't miss types.

 

[Andy007]

(although I am quietly believing that they are going to run out of gas at some point late in the season or early in the playoffs... but I'm not saying that out loud just yet)

I'll say it out loud.  Leafs and Bruins meet in the 1st round of the playoffs, Leafs take them out like the scrubs they are similar to how we used to beat the Sens in the playoffs after being dominated in the season series.

Those Ottawa teams, though, had some legitimate flaws such as questionable goaltending and weak physical play. I don't see any such flaws on this Boston team.

Oh yeah?  Well whatever

(I was only kidding to try and get some "rah rah" going)

Hey confidence might help actually. Sometimes you get it in the head that a team or goalie is impenetrable and only defeat yourself. That probably crept into the minds of those Sens teams that lost to an AHL Leafs playoff squad

 

[dappleganger]

(although I am quietly believing that they are going to run out of gas at some point late in the season or early in the playoffs... but I'm not saying that out loud just yet)

I'll say it out loud.  Leafs and Bruins meet in the 1st round of the playoffs, Leafs take them out like the scrubs they are similar to how we used to beat the Sens in the playoffs after being dominated in the season series.

Love it.

 

[maplesyrup]

Yeah, I've been thinking about (ugh) Boston... Krejci, Hamilton, Caron I'd say gets it done for Getzlaf (or something like that.) I think it would be a good deal for both teams.

Boston is scary looking enough without adding another stud like Getzlaf.  That just wouldn't be fair.

But that's almost why it doesn't make sense for Boston. They give up serious prospect depth and a guy who they know, like and has good chemistry with his linemates for the hope that Getzlaf turns it on after a change of scenery?

For Anaheim, I mean, they add some nice pieces but Krejci is a pretty uninspiring centrepiece and they don't save money.

A deal like this replenishes the team and makes perfect sense I think. They'll probably also going to move out two of Visnovsky, Beauchemin, Lydman, Blake, and Hagman saving money there.

Edit: Boston aside, the point being is they don't need to save money when dealing Getzlaf.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

I actually think this is one of those scenarios where, if Getzlaf does get traded, people might be surprised at what he gets dealt for. Getzlaf's a good player, no doubt, but he's not exactly young and he's struggling. If I'm a NHL GM I'm not going to trade a guy who's young and already lights out like RNH or Seguin and I'd be pretty hesitant about trading guys just below that level like Benn or, say, Karlsson.

Any swap of Getzlaf for established guys would have to be for an established player of equal calibre who's similarly struggling. Even then though, do the Ducks get much better with a Getzlaf for Staal deal? Or would they be more or less in the exact same position.

If Getzlaf does get dealt, I have a hunch it's going to be a for a collection of second tier kind of young players/prospects/picks. I think Erndog's list is a good one in terms of what the Leafs have in that regard but I don't know if there are any players on it who are having really good NHL seasons right now. I don't think guys like Connolly or MacArthur would have any value at all in that conversation.

I approve this message. I feel the same way, Murray can try to up the value all he wants, but at the end of the day, he's still a player that is playing like crap.

 

[The Red Polar Bear]

Yeah, I've been thinking about (ugh) Boston... Krejci, Hamilton, Caron I'd say gets it done for Getzlaf (or something like that.) I think it would be a good deal for both teams.

Boston is scary looking enough without adding another stud like Getzlaf.  That just wouldn't be fair.

But that's almost why it doesn't make sense for Boston. They give up serious prospect depth and a guy who they know, like and has good chemistry with his linemates for the hope that Getzlaf turns it on after a change of scenery?

For Anaheim, I mean, they add some nice pieces but Krejci is a pretty uninspiring centrepiece and they don't save money.

A deal like this replenishes the team and makes perfect sense I think. They'll probably also going to move out two of Visnovsky, Beauchemin, Lydman, Blake, and Hagman saving money there.

Edit: Boston aside, the point being is they don't need to save money when dealing Getzlaf.

Just as an aside, and I didn't realize this until looking it up just now, but starting next year Krejci and Getzlaf make within $100k of each other.

 

[Corn Flake]

Some recent comparable moves to use as a bit of a template:

A) Jeff Carter for Voracek, 1st and a 3rd.
B) Mike Richards for Simmonds, B. Schenn and a 2nd round pick.

Comparable deals from the Leafs side of things would be:

A) Kulemin 1st and 3rd
B) Kulemin (or Schenn, or Gunarsson), Kadri + 2nd

The Simmonds/Voracek/Kulemin player is that one with a few NHL years under the belt, shown some success but with some ups and downs.. all in all lots of potential but trending towards probably being a non-star/solid NHL player.

Both deals returned a relative blue chipper (1st in Carter deal drafted what appears to be one) a serviceable player and a pick.    Basically, the standard template we have seen for the majority of star player trades over the last... ever, only dialing up a few notches on the quality of the key player in the trade.

So I go back to the concept of trading one player each from each of these piles:

1. Kadri, Colborne, Gardiner ("blue chippers" just starting their careers)
2. Schenn, Gunarsson, Kulemin (good young players with ups and downs but lots of runway left)
3. Throw-in players of many to choose from, or a pick.

Does Getzlaf compare to Carter and Richards?  In many ways, yes, in others he has the age disadvantage but is on a less ridiculously long contract.. he's also won.  edit: the KEY difference is Getzlaf is having the worst year of his career, which throws some of the comparable for a loop.  Both Richards and Carter were coming off typically solid seasons.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

I'm wondering if we should just wait for Colborne. I have a feeling that he is going to be a very good player in the NHL. He's starting to realize that he has the size and his skill is undeniable. Connolly is only signed for another year after this, it might be the better move for Burke to just wait and see what we have, rather than decimating the team to acquire one player.

I think that this team is a tight bunch and that everything is going to continue to improve with more development. Sometimes our patience as Leaf fans could be a bit better, to say the least.

 

[Erndog]

I was just weighing some of the pros to the Leafs' chance of acquiring one of the Ducks' three.  Here's what I came up with (not in order of level of importance):

1)  We are in the Eastern Conference.  No matter how much someone might say this doesn't help, it certainly doesn't hurt.

2)  Our GM, Brian Burke, has an excellent relationship with Ducks GM, Bob Murray.  They have completed 3 trades in the last little while (Giguere-Blake, Beauchemin-Lupul, Caputi-Deschamps).  There's a 'trust' there.

3)  We have the ability to eat any salary the Ducks may want to add in the deal.  The Ducks are a budget team, NOT a cap team.  As such, they are very limited in what they can acquire.  They will likely not be adding any salary after a deal.  We can eat pretty much anything they would want to throw back at us.  Not every team (say, Florida) can eat salary.

4)  We have put together an attractive "package".  What I mean is, we can put together a group of good, young, cheap assets.  Schenn, Kulemin, Bozak, Kadri, Colborne, Aulie, Frattin, Franson, Gunnarsson, 1st are all 25 or younger, affordable, NHL caliber players who still have upside.  We could likely afford to give up some combination of even 4 of these.  The Ducks are not looking for picks/prospects.  They want NHL talent.  We have that.

5)  The needs match up.  Everyone knows we need a top line center and Getzlaf would probably be one of the best fits out there.  Not to mention Burkes relationship with him.  I remember when he re-signed Ryan he said that he is their future captain.  Burke basically named him captain before he was even given the C.  The Ducks are very top heavy and lack defence.  We could help them in both regards.  We have an abundance of D men, and we are not top heavy but bottom heavy.  I think there is certainly a fit here.


At the very least, I'd say we are in a decent position to at least make a run for them.  Years ago if someone like this came up we wouldn't even be in the same ballpark as most teams.  Montreal seems to be in this position now.  They can't make a run at a top end player (via trade) because they don't have the assets. 

While we may not win out, we can offer an attractive package at least that would at the very least have the Ducks considering it.  Whether they accept it is another story.

 

[L K]

Some recent comparable moves to use as a bit of a template:

A) Jeff Carter for Voracek, 1st and a 3rd.
B) Mike Richards for Simmonds, B. Schenn and a 2nd round pick.

Comparable deals from the Leafs side of things would be:

A) Kulemin 1st and 3rd
B) Kulemin (or Schenn, or Gunarsson), Kadri + 2nd

The Simmonds/Voracek/Kulemin player is that one with a few NHL years under the belt, shown some success but with some ups and downs.. all in all lots of potential but trending towards probably being a non-star/solid NHL player.

Both deals returned a relative blue chipper (1st in Carter deal drafted what appears to be one) a serviceable player and a pick.    Basically, the standard template we have seen for the majority of star player trades over the last... ever, only dialing up a few notches on the quality of the key player in the trade.

So I go back to the concept of trading one player each from each of these piles:

1. Kadri, Colborne, Gardiner ("blue chippers" just starting their careers)
2. Schenn, Gunarsson, Kulemin (good young players with ups and downs but lots of runway left)
3. Throw-in players of many to choose from, or a pick.

Does Getzlaf compare to Carter and Richards?  In many ways, yes, in others he has the age disadvantage but is on a less ridiculously long contract.. he's also won.  edit: the KEY difference is Getzlaf is having the worst year of his career, which throws some of the comparable for a loop.  Both Richards and Carter were coming off typically solid seasons.

The only thing that has me a little wary with Getzlaf is that he missed 31 games in the past two years (not a massive amount on its own), but I wonder if he has pulled back on his physical game because he saw the injuries and knew what would happen to his career if he kept playing all-out. 

He went from being a 100 PIM player down to 35 last year and while his numbers are up again this year, it's a lot of lazy penalties.

Power-forwards tend to break down, and while not usually this year, he will have a good 500 games under his belt by the end of the season so that might be something to consider if the Leafs are going to try and break the bank for Getzlaf.