Official Armchair GM Thread 2014-2015 Leafs

[sneakyray]

I'd be surprised if they gave up 19 without getting a decent pick back.  The leafs don't have a 2nd rounder this year so I think a trade would look something like mantha,  #19 and Weiss for phaneuf and #24.  And I'm still not sold that detroit would do this which I'm OK with because I think the leafs need to hoard picks, not include them going back in deals. Personally I'd rather they try and do something with either Anaheim, Columbus or Colorado in regards to phaneuf.

Until draft day, I really think that moving up five spots is going to be of dubious value. Without having a clearer idea of who will be available at 19 that won't at 24 you're basically valuing those two picks with a dart board.

So if there's a chance to move Phaneuf I say you do it for whatever sort of cash in hand assets the Leafs can get for him. If you see a real need/opportunity to move up at the draft, the Leafs have other assets to try and make that happen.

But is phaneuf an honest to goodness asset or should he just be dumped to the highest bidder? We're not talking about Mike Richards or david Clarkson here.

BTW my main issue is having to give up a pick at all. I am not overly concerned with moving up (unless it's into the top 10) I just want more picks outright.

 

[sneakyray]

I'd be surprised if they gave up 19 without getting a decent pick back.  The leafs don't have a 2nd rounder this year so I think a trade would look something like mantha,  #19 and Weiss for phaneuf and #24.  And I'm still not sold that detroit would do this which I'm OK with because I think the leafs need to hoard picks, not include them going back in deals. Personally I'd rather they try and do something with either Anaheim, Columbus or Colorado in regards to phaneuf.

You're not likely to get a prospect as good as Mantha from another team, so, to me, that alone is worth it. Throw in upgrading the 24th pick to the 19th, and that makes it a pretty easy yes from me. If that deal is on the table, it's almost certainly the best the Leafs will get for Phaneuf.

I am a bit surprised that as far as a prospect goes that mantha is as good as it could get for phaneuf.  Maybe I'm showing my ignorance of him and his potential impact but I really get floored that the leafs have to either eat salary or take a bad contract back. With the recent long deals for petry and l eddy it's not like he's crazy overpaid.

 

[bustaheims]

I am a bit surprised that as far as a prospect goes that mantha is as good as it could get for phaneuf.  Maybe I'm showing my ignorance of him and his potential impact but I really get floored that the leafs have to either eat salary or take a bad contract back. With the recent long deals for petry and l eddy it's not like he's crazy overpaid.

Taking a contract back is just the reality of trading expensive, long-term deals in a cap system. It's not so much a reflection of Phaneuf being overpaid as much as it is over team needing to be able to manage their cap if they're going to trade for him at all. The same will be true if/when Kessel is moved. It's extremely difficult to move a big cap number without taking one back. I don't see them retaining salary, but they will absolutely have to take on a contract like Weiss.

 

[Kin]

But is phaneuf an honest to goodness asset or should he just be dumped to the highest bidder? We're not talking about Mike Richards or david Clarkson here.

BTW my main issue is having to give up a pick at all. I am not overly concerned with moving up (unless it's into the top 10) I just want more picks outright.

Well, it seems like you're dealing with two separate issues. On the second, I agree. Unless Phaneuf would be part of the team moving up significantly, like say from #24 into the top 12, then I'd rather they simply trade him for whatever the market says he's worth in terms of assets by himself rather than try and package him. Now, that might only be a good-pretty good prospect and a second rounder but that's fine with me.

As to the first issue, with regards to how good Phaneuf is and what his value genuinely is...I mean, I've said this enough re: Phil Kessel but the team is rebuilding and rebuilding means shedding assets. It doesn't mean trading largely worthless pieces like Lupul and Bozak and hoping Phaneuf and Kessel have monster years next year. We don't want good players having monster years next year. We want to draft #1 overall next year.

Does that mean you might take less than what you'd ideally like for someone like Phaneuf or Kessel? Maybe. But I think you're underestimating the concept of the marketplace if you think that these valuations won't be a legitimate reflection of what these players are worth around the league. If the Leafs offer up Phaneuf and the best they get is a 2nd round pick...what's the upside in keeping him? What's the wisdom in arguing with how he's seen around the league?

 

[sneakyray]

But is phaneuf an honest to goodness asset or should he just be dumped to the highest bidder? We're not talking about Mike Richards or david Clarkson here.

BTW my main issue is having to give up a pick at all. I am not overly concerned with moving up (unless it's into the top 10) I just want more picks outright.

Well, it seems like you're dealing with two separate issues. On the second, I agree. Unless Phaneuf would be part of the team moving up significantly, like say from #24 into the top 12, then I'd rather they simply trade him for whatever the market says he's worth in terms of assets by himself rather than try and package him. Now, that might only be a good-pretty good prospect and a second rounder but that's fine with me.

As to the first issue, with regards to how good Phaneuf is and what his value genuinely is...I mean, I've said this enough re: Phil Kessel but the team is rebuilding and rebuilding means shedding assets. It doesn't mean trading largely worthless pieces like Lupul and Bozak and hoping Phaneuf and Kessel have monster years next year. We don't want good players having monster years next year. We want to draft #1 overall next year.

Does that mean you might take less than what you'd ideally like for someone like Phaneuf or Kessel? Maybe. But I think you're underestimating the concept of the marketplace if you think that these valuations won't be a legitimate reflection of what these players are worth around the league. If the Leafs offer up Phaneuf and the best they get is a 2nd round pick...what's the upside in keeping him? What's the wisdom in arguing with how he's seen around the league?

But is phaneuf not probably the best dman rumoured to be available right now?  so shouldn't he be worth the most?  Does rebuilding mean you get far less than market value?  I certainly hope not.

I'm just trying to figure out in my own head what the hold up is...if the deal last deadline was mantha, Brendan smith and Weiss...but Detroit refused to give up mantha then why isn't phaneuf a red wing right now since mantha is available?  either the wings/leafs changed their tune or shanny is playing chicken hoping someone will pony up closer to the draft.

or maybe babcock does really like phaneuf

 

[sneakyray]

I am a bit surprised that as far as a prospect goes that mantha is as good as it could get for phaneuf.  Maybe I'm showing my ignorance of him and his potential impact but I really get floored that the leafs have to either eat salary or take a bad contract back. With the recent long deals for petry and l eddy it's not like he's crazy overpaid.

Taking a contract back is just the reality of trading expensive, long-term deals in a cap system. It's not so much a reflection of Phaneuf being overpaid as much as it is over team needing to be able to manage their cap if they're going to trade for him at all. The same will be true if/when Kessel is moved. It's extremely difficult to move a big cap number without taking one back. I don't see them retaining salary, but they will absolutely have to take on a contract like Weiss.

I actually don't mind the deal after hearing the Detroit guys talk about mantha.  But the problem is it probably won't include #19...the rumoured deal was actually smith, Weiss and mantha.

I still don't hate it but I want more picks in the end.

 

[Kin]

But is phaneuf not probably the best dman rumoured to be available right now?  so shouldn't he be worth the most?  Does rebuilding mean you get far less than market value?  I certainly hope not.

Well, those aren't really black and white questions. So take a guy like Franson. Is Phaneuf a better player than Franson? Yes. Is he worth more than Franson? Sure.

But let's look at what it'll realistically cost a team to add either. Let's say Franson gets a hefty 5 year, 30 million dollar deal. Well, for a team to acquire Phaneuf they'll be giving him 6 years, 42 million dollars and, according to you, a package that includes a first round pick and a very good prospect. Whereas in terms of assets, Franson costs zero. Is Phaneuf that much better than Franson? I don't know.

You say "does rebuilding mean taking far less than Market value" but if the Leafs only get underwhelming offers for Phaneuf...that is his market value. Rebuilding means having to deal with the market as it is, not as you'd like it to be.

I'm just trying to figure out in my own head what the hold up is...if the deal last deadline was mantha, Brendan smith and Weiss...but Detroit refused to give up mantha then why isn't phaneuf a red wing right now since mantha is available?  either the wings/leafs changed their tune or shanny is playing chicken hoping someone will pony up closer to the draft.

or maybe babcock does really like phaneuf

Or maybe Babcock isn't crazy about Phaneuf and his being luke-warm on adding Phaneuf blocked the deal at the time but now, without Babcock, Holland is more inclined to deal. Or maybe some of these rumours are just that.

 

[sneakyray]

I must say that I'm not sure that he should get a lights out prospect and a first but I am going to be disappointed if he doesn't bring one of those. So I guess I do agree with you Nik.  It is time to start over. Get the big boys outta here and load up on any and all good young assets.

 

[KW Sluggo]

But is phaneuf an honest to goodness asset or should he just be dumped to the highest bidder? We're not talking about Mike Richards or david Clarkson here.

BTW my main issue is having to give up a pick at all. I am not overly concerned with moving up (unless it's into the top 10) I just want more picks outright.

Well, it seems like you're dealing with two separate issues. On the second, I agree. Unless Phaneuf would be part of the team moving up significantly, like say from #24 into the top 12, then I'd rather they simply trade him for whatever the market says he's worth in terms of assets by himself rather than try and package him. Now, that might only be a good-pretty good prospect and a second rounder but that's fine with me.

As to the first issue, with regards to how good Phaneuf is and what his value genuinely is...I mean, I've said this enough re: Phil Kessel but the team is rebuilding and rebuilding means shedding assets. It doesn't mean trading largely worthless pieces like Lupul and Bozak and hoping Phaneuf and Kessel have monster years next year. We don't want good players having monster years next year. We want to draft #1 overall next year.

Does that mean you might take less than what you'd ideally like for someone like Phaneuf or Kessel? Maybe. But I think you're underestimating the concept of the marketplace if you think that these valuations won't be a legitimate reflection of what these players are worth around the league. If the Leafs offer up Phaneuf and the best they get is a 2nd round pick...what's the upside in keeping him? What's the wisdom in arguing with how he's seen around the league?

But is phaneuf not probably the best dman rumoured to be available right now?  so shouldn't he be worth the most?  Does rebuilding mean you get far less than market value?  I certainly hope not.

I'm just trying to figure out in my own head what the hold up is...if the deal last deadline was mantha, Brendan smith and Weiss...but Detroit refused to give up mantha then why isn't phaneuf a red wing right now since mantha is available?  either the wings/leafs changed their tune or shanny is playing chicken hoping someone will pony up closer to the draft.

or maybe babcock does really like phaneuf

The answer to your question as to whether Phaneuf may be the best available dman is an interesting one. "Best" depends on so many factors that merge into one criterion: value

The value of any asset is subject to market fluctuation. For example, coming up to the trade deadline the conventional wisdom was that the best deal could be made for Phaneuf and Kessel at or shortly after the draft (I demur a bit as far as Kessel as concerned since I could see him being very valuable for playoff run but less so if he was to be in training camp to spread his attitude - training camp after a successful of semi-successful playoff run might be more palatable, trading and having him come in at the start of the season would not be my preferred choice).

Come the beginning of July, many GMs do stupid things when it comes to UFAs and this year will likely be no exception. Ergo, whether Phaneuf is the best may depend as much on cap space, UFA contract offers as on the relative talent level in the marketplace (that will still count of course). All I am saying is that as time goes on the long term contracts of prior years have a habit of becoming more reasonable in comparison with what UFAs get paid each summer.

Teams that have space and/or bad contracts to dump and are willing to part with draft picks will present a much better market than is usually the case for a Phaneuf or Kessel trade.

Carolina is a good example of a team that still has 4 or 5 decent players and obtaining a vessel or a Phaneuf may be more appealing to them than waiting two years for the number 5 pick to develop into a solid NHLer for the next GM and coach.

All I know for sure is I want the Leafs got get as many draft picks this year and then again next year including another one in the top 10 or 15 this time around.

 

[Britishbulldog]

This guy has really cleaned out the team:

https://www.hockeyscap.com/armchair-gm/team/3284

 

[moon111]

I would rather take a chance that Babcock's coaching improves Phaneuf's trade value then deal him before the trade deadline.

 

[Tigger]

This guy has really cleaned out the team:

https://www.hockeyscap.com/armchair-gm/team/3284

No to Soderberg, wrong kind of free agent for the Leafs, no to the Colorado proposal, if the Leafs are going whole hog like the rest of those ideas ( which are at least in the right direction if not lopsided some ) then use Gardiner and JVR to that end as well. Maybe go after the Devils first like that, draft 4,5,6,7, 9 in a supposed great draft year, heck, go for Columbus' pick too.

Crap, I just woke up.

 

[Britishbulldog]

I would rather take a chance that Babcock's coaching improves Phaneuf's trade value then deal him before the trade deadline.

I could be reading the trends wrong but it appears that typically the large contracts need to be moved in the summer and UFA rentals are moved at the deadline due to cap restraints.

That would make Polak the best candidate to secure a 1st round pick from a playoff team next trade deadline in my mind but I could be wrong.

 

[Zee]

This guy has really cleaned out the team:

https://www.hockeyscap.com/armchair-gm/team/3284

Oh great, we get Semin in this fantasy land.

 

[Britishbulldog]

This guy has really cleaned out the team:

https://www.hockeyscap.com/armchair-gm/team/3284

Oh great, we get Semin in this fantasy land.

We're goin' for #1 next draft. 

Semin's contract is so bad that I think you could get the 1st Round Pick (5th overall) out of Carolina to correct Jim Rutherford's horrible mistake.  Especially as Carolina are figuring out their future with E Staal and Cam Ward. 

I am not sure how badly Carolina would want to trade the 1st pick to get Komarov at almost $3 MIL for a 3rd line LW and Kadri at $4 - 4.5 to play 3rd line center behind the Staal bothers.  Some other Leaf would have to be in that deal and Phaneuf would make the most sense.  It would cancel the Detroit deal but Detroit is really unhappy with Mantha anyway which makes me a bit concerned.

I also have no interest in the Colorado trade with a rebuild.  It doesn't make sense when those assets can be used for draft picks who will yield a player 6 years younger and a lot cheaper ELC. 

This guy also had the Leafs going for LD Sanheim which I like.... but also went for LD Mueller which I thought wasn't needed with LD Rielly and possibly LD Hanifin.

I would not be interested in signing Greiss or '85 Soderberg.

I would suggest:
Brandon Kozun was signed as an RFA for $700,000.
Richard Panik was signed as an RFA for $1,000,000.
Andrew MacWilliam was signed as an RFA for $700,000.

Trades

TOR Sanheim, T Lecavalier, V Umberger, R Additional Details: - PHI 2015 1st RD Pick (7th Overall)

PHI Kessel, P.

TOR Pokka, V Bickell, B Additional Details: - CHI 2016 3rd Rd Pick

CHI Frattin, M. Additional Details: - TOR 2016 5th Rd Pick

TOR Semin, A Additional Details: - CAR 2015 1st RD Pick (5th Overall)

CAR Phaneuf, D

TOR Additional Details: - SJ 2015 1st Rd Pick (9th Overall)

SJS Bernier, J. Additional Details: - NSH 2015 1st Rd Pick (24th Overall)

That leaves Kadri, Bozak and Gardiner as assets and saves Polak for the deadline.

JVR / Bozak / Semin
Lupul / Kadri / Umberger
Komarov / Holland / Stewart
Bickell / Lecavalier / Kozun

Rielly / Polak
Gardiner / Robidas
Marlie / Marlie

Reimer
UFA

Based on the averages of mock drafts the 4th, 5th, 7th and 9th picks might be:

1) Connor McDavid  C   
2) Jack Eichel C
3) Noah Hanifin LD
4) Dylan Strome C
5) Mitch Marner RW
6) Ivan Provorov LD
7) Lawson Crouse LW
8 ) Mikko Rantanen RW
9) Zack Werenski RD

If the Leafs could trade the 5th overall pick and Gardiner to Phoenix for the 3rd overall pick a solid prospect foundation would be laid.

'94 Rielly LD
'94 Pokka RD
'96 Nylander RW
'96 Sanheim LD (Phi)
'97 Hanifin LD (Pho 3rd Overall)
'97 Strome C
'97 Crouse LW (Phi 7th Overall)
'97 Werenski RD (SJS 9th Overall)

...add JVR, Kadri, Holland + 2016 1st pick for pending UFA Polak and Leafs 2016 1st pick

....or the Leafs could go status quo moving NOBODY and with great coaching the next 2 years miss the playoffs by less than 4 points each time and get a terrible draft position.

 

[Zee]

You're a mad man, Leafs with 4 picks in the top 10?  ;D  I'd love to see it happen, start the rebuild with a fury.

Oh, by the way, Kozun is gone to the KHL from your lineup.

 

[Andy007]

How about we just ask Carolina for their 5th overall pick?

 

[Zee]

How about we just ask Carolina for their 5th overall pick?

It never hurts to ask.

 

[Britishbulldog]

You're a mad man, Leafs with 4 picks in the top 10?  ;D  I'd love to see it happen, start the rebuild with a fury.

Oh, by the way, Kozun is gone to the KHL from your lineup.

Yeah, I shoot for the stars and hope.....

Kozun has just been replaced by Bailey in my line up. 

 

[Britishbulldog]

How about we just ask Carolina for their 5th overall pick?

The whole strategy is to look for teams with bad contracts and/or against the cap with key players to re-sign.  Chicago has Saad to re-sign with Bickell's horrible contract.  Philadelphia has Umberger and Lecavalier as boat anchors.

Carolina on the other hand has to decide what they are going to do with Eric Staal and Cam Ward. Are they going to blow it up or simply re-tool.  Semin's contract is worse than what Rutherford has done to the Penguins...which has been pretty terrible so far.  Looking to leverage that and give Carolina a dman to pair with Faulk is a win for both sides.  Marner is not going to play center a head of Eric and Jordan.