Unofficial 2013-2014 Armchair GM Thread

[caver]

I don't think they will eat any salary to move Liles. If they can't do a trade for him I believe they will move Franson and keep Liles.

 

[caver]

They can still send Brennan down. There is a bit of a crowd of possibles for the 7 spot.

 

[bustaheims]

Doesn't Brennan have a one way contract? He would be your 7th d man if that's the case.

All a one way contract means is that he gets paid the same amount regardless of which league he plays in. It doesn't guarantee a roster spot. It doesn't impact waivers, and, if it's less than the league minimum + $375K, having a playing on a one way contract in the AHL doesn't impact the cap. Brennan might be the 7th defenceman, but his contract in no way influences that.

 

[Redleaf]

I don't think they will eat any salary to move Liles. If they can't do a trade for him I believe they will move Franson and keep Liles.

I disagree. Franson has so much more value to the Leafs moving forward than Liles, and they need to keep him and move Liles any way they can.

 

[Redleaf]

Doesn't Brennan have a one way contract? He would be your 7th d man if that's the case.

All a one way contract means is that he gets paid the same amount regardless of which league he plays in. It doesn't guarantee a roster spot. It doesn't impact waivers, and, if it's less than the league minimum + $375K, having a playing on a one way contract in the AHL doesn't impact the cap. Brennan might be the 7th defenceman, but his contract in no way influences that.

Good to know.

 

[Champ Kind]

Here's my latest attempt at squeezing under the cap.  It involves a prayer that some team will take Liles if we retain 33% of his salary.  Liles at 2.6 million for another team doesn't seem atrocious to me.  I'm not expecting to get any assets back.  It is pure salary dump.  You could probably afford to pay the combo of Liles + Kadri $500K more if you had to.  Given Kadri has only been in the NHL for 1/2 a season really and Subban got 2.4, $3 million each doesn't sound impossible.

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Tyler Bozak ($4.200m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($3.000m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)
Joe Colborne ($0.600m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.700m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Colton Orr ($0.925m)
Trevor Smith ($0.550m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m) / Carl Gunnarsson ($3.150m)
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / Cody Franson ($3.000m)
Paul Ranger ($1.000m) / Mark Fraser ($1.000m)
Korbinian Holzer ($0.788m) /
GOALTENDERS
Jonathan Bernier ($2.900m)
James Reimer ($1.800m)
OTHER
Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (2.766% of upper limit)
Matt Frattin ($0.437m?0.5%) Ben Scrivens ($0.062m?0.1%) John-Michael Liles ($1.279m?33.0%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $62,832,917; BONUSES: $300,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $1,767,083

I like this.  One adjustment for me, though: McClement goes to the thrid line wing and Colborne plays 4C.  Instead of playing both Orr and McLaren, one of them sits and a youngster jumps onto the fourth line (Carter Ashton, Tyler Biggs).

Rationale is that with Clarkson in the lineup, you don't need to dress both goons at the same time.  McLaren skates and handles the puck better than Orr, so he's the one I go with off the hop.

 

[Kin]

Rationale is that with Clarkson in the lineup, you don't need to dress both goons at the same time.  McLaren skates and handles the puck better than Orr, so he's the one I go with off the hop.

Problem there from a practical standpoint though is that there never was a need to dress both guys so it seems as though Carlyle is pretty committed to it regardless.

 

[Jalili]

I don't think they will eat any salary to move Liles. If they can't do a trade for him I believe they will move Franson and keep Liles.

I disagree. Franson has so much more value to the Leafs moving forward than Liles, and they need to keep him and move Liles any way they can.

And Franson leaves a pretty big gap on defense while Liles has already been pretty much replaced.

 

[Corn Flake]

For those really high on Franson and think either he is worth big money ($3+ mil) and or could play a top unit role, what exactly do you think his value is on the trade market?  If he's as good as some think he is, he must be worth a ton on the market, no?

 

[drummond]

Here is imho the only plausible scenario. It would also explain why the Leafs are seemingly so "eager" to get to the arbitration with Fraser (to get that second buy-out window).

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/7/29/4567518/save-cody-franson-liles-buyout-arbitration-leafs
In a situation without a good option, the best one for Toronto would be to buy-out Liles after Mark Fraser's arbitration case is settled. As per the NHL CBA, there is a second buy-out window for clubs that have salary arbitration cases. In such cases, the second buy-out window opens three days after the club's final arbitration case is settled (either through an award via arbitration or last minute deal with the team) and lasts for 48 hours. Mark Fraser's arbitration case is set for tomorrow. That means the Leafs brief opening to buy-out Liles will begin either Thursday or Friday of this week.

Liles' buy-out numbers aren't pretty, but it gets the Leafs an extra $3m to play with for the upcoming season, which is just enough to sign Cody Franson to a new long-term deal and have a little left over to keep Jerry D'Amigo or Tyler Biggs on the roster.

 

[Redleaf]

For those really high on Franson and think either he is worth big money ($3+ mil) and or could play a top unit role, what exactly do you think his value is on the trade market?  If he's as good as some think he is, he must be worth a ton on the market, no?

For those thinking his value is high and it is a good time to trade him, I would disagree. I think his value to the Leafs is greater than his value on the open market at present. I believe his value will increase in the coming years, so to trade him now wouldn't be selling high IMO.

 

[Champ Kind]

Rationale is that with Clarkson in the lineup, you don't need to dress both goons at the same time.  McLaren skates and handles the puck better than Orr, so he's the one I go with off the hop.

Problem there from a practical standpoint though is that there never was a need to dress both guys so it seems as though Carlyle is pretty committed to it regardless.

While I'd agree with you, we don't know what Carlyle's thought on this is.  I'm stretching here, but if he wants three fighters (or, should I say, three guys that can reasonably fight) in the lineup, which could be the way we interpret his lineups last year, then maybe one of Orr / McLaren can be dropped. 

 

[Champ Kind]

For those really high on Franson and think either he is worth big money ($3+ mil) and or could play a top unit role, what exactly do you think his value is on the trade market?  If he's as good as some think he is, he must be worth a ton on the market, no?

For those thinking his value is high and it is a good time to trade him, I would disagree. I think his value to the Leafs is greater than his value on the open market at present. I believe his value will increase in the coming years, so to trade him now wouldn't be selling high IMO.

Hold on, though.  If you believe he will improve, wouldn't other GMs feel the same way?  Wouldn't the pay for his potential?

 

[princedpw]

Here is imho the only plausible scenario. It would also explain why the Leafs are seemingly so "eager" to get to the arbitration with Fraser (to get that second buy-out window).

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/7/29/4567518/save-cody-franson-liles-buyout-arbitration-leafs
In a situation without a good option, the best one for Toronto would be to buy-out Liles after Mark Fraser's arbitration case is settled. As per the NHL CBA, there is a second buy-out window for clubs that have salary arbitration cases. In such cases, the second buy-out window opens three days after the club's final arbitration case is settled (either through an award via arbitration or last minute deal with the team) and lasts for 48 hours. Mark Fraser's arbitration case is set for tomorrow. That means the Leafs brief opening to buy-out Liles will begin either Thursday or Friday of this week.

Liles' buy-out numbers aren't pretty, but it gets the Leafs an extra $3m to play with for the upcoming season, which is just enough to sign Cody Franson to a new long-term deal and have a little left over to keep Jerry D'Amigo or Tyler Biggs on the roster.

If the Leafs do this, Nonis should be fired for gross mismanagement.  This would be the equivalent of paying Bozak ~$7 million per year instead of Grabovski $5.5 (with the free Liles buyout).

 

[mr grieves]

For those really high on Franson and think either he is worth big money ($3+ mil) and or could play a top unit role, what exactly do you think his value is on the trade market?  If he's as good as some think he is, he must be worth a ton on the market, no?

For those thinking his value is high and it is a good time to trade him, I would disagree. I think his value to the Leafs is greater than his value on the open market at present. I believe his value will increase in the coming years, so to trade him now wouldn't be selling high IMO.

It's worth considering that the market this season is a depressed one: there are only about 6 teams that could reasonably take on Franson's likely $3-4m contract without Leafing themselves. Otherwise, cap's gone down, dollars have been committed, and lots of teams are already pretty close to it.

So, if a bidding war between Buffalo, Calgary, and Carolina doesn't yield what you think a very good RFA PMD with size entering his prime should, that doesn't really prove that that's not what he is -- no more than a half dozen teams falling over themselves to sign some UFA on July 1st proves that guy is a top-pairing defenseman or elite top-six forward (hello, David Clarkson).

Most of what we learn from signings and trades, IMO, has to do with the market -- not the talent of players and of what use they'll be on the ice. For that, there are measures that are more useful than salary, trade return, number of teams submitting offers, etc.

 

[princedpw]

Rationale is that with Clarkson in the lineup, you don't need to dress both goons at the same time.  McLaren skates and handles the puck better than Orr, so he's the one I go with off the hop.

Problem there from a practical standpoint though is that there never was a need to dress both guys so it seems as though Carlyle is pretty committed to it regardless.

Yeah, from a practical standpoint, top teams like LA, Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, etc. seem to feel like they can get away without dressing 2 goons and simultaneously fill-in tough guys like Fraser (or Clarkson).  But I guess those teams don't have players as good as Kadri and Kessel that so desperately need protecting.

 

[bustaheims]

Hold on, though.  If you believe he will improve, wouldn't other GMs feel the same way?  Wouldn't the pay for his potential?

It is sort of a logical inconsistency, isn't it? If Franson is really the type of player the Leafs need to clear space to be able to fit him in under the cap, then he should roughly the equivalent value on the trade market. If he's really a ~$4M per season defenceman, he would be valued around the league as such. If he's not, then the Leafs shouldn't be considering giving him that kind of contract. Now, as we know, things don't always play out in their most logical fashion in the real world - especially when it comes to athletes' contracts and player trades - but, nevertheless, you're right in the people should operate with that type of logic until things turn out otherwise.

 

[Jalili]

For those really high on Franson and think either he is worth big money ($3+ mil) and or could play a top unit role, what exactly do you think his value is on the trade market?  If he's as good as some think he is, he must be worth a ton on the market, no?

For those thinking his value is high and it is a good time to trade him, I would disagree. I think his value to the Leafs is greater than his value on the open market at present. I believe his value will increase in the coming years, so to trade him now wouldn't be selling high IMO.

The Leafs are also in somewhat of a cap jam, so whatever value you get for him now is probably lower than it would be otherwise. Values can often be cyclical too.

 

[mr grieves]

Hold on, though.  If you believe he will improve, wouldn't other GMs feel the same way?  Wouldn't the pay for his potential?

It is sort of a logical inconsistency, isn't it? If Franson is really the type of player the Leafs need to clear space to be able to fit him in under the cap, then he should roughly the equivalent value on the trade market. If he's really a ~$4M per season defenceman, he would be valued around the league as such. If he's not, then the Leafs shouldn't be considering giving him that kind of contract. Now, as we know, things don't always play out in their most logical fashion in the real world - especially when it comes to athletes' contracts and player trades - but, nevertheless, you're right in the people should operate with that type of logic until things turn out otherwise.

Have you never seen a UFA day? A trade deadline? The world's been turned for a long time now.

If a Carolina-Calgary bidding war for Franson gets the Leafs a middling prospect and fourth round pick, that doesn't mean Franson's not a young, big, defensively underrated, improving PMD who'll be on a RFA contract and is entering his prime. It'll just mean you can get that for cheap in the market he was traded in.

 

[Champ Kind]

Hold on, though.  If you believe he will improve, wouldn't other GMs feel the same way?  Wouldn't the pay for his potential?

It is sort of a logical inconsistency, isn't it? If Franson is really the type of player the Leafs need to clear space to be able to fit him in under the cap, then he should roughly the equivalent value on the trade market. If he's really a ~$4M per season defenceman, he would be valued around the league as such. If he's not, then the Leafs shouldn't be considering giving him that kind of contract. Now, as we know, things don't always play out in their most logical fashion in the real world - especially when it comes to athletes' contracts and player trades - but, nevertheless, you're right in the people should operate with that type of logic until things turn out otherwise.

Have you never seen a UFA day? A trade deadline? The world's been turned for a long time now.

If a Carolina-Calgary bidding war for Franson gets the Leafs a middling prospect and fourth round pick, that doesn't mean Franson's not a young, big, defensively underrated, improving PMD who'll be on a RFA contract and is entering his prime. It'll just mean you can get that for cheap in the market he was traded in.

You lost me when you called Franson "defensively underrated".