Unofficial 2013-2014 Armchair GM Thread

[CarltonTheBear]

You guys are getting rid of Kulemin for a player that has never outscored Kulemin?

I mean, I don't know much about the guy, but what does he bring to the table that Kulemin doesn't?

Yeah, if Bickell is replacing somebody it's Orr, not Kulemin.

And it's not even about the scoring though. Kulemin is arguably our best defensive forward. At worst, he's right behind McClement. Bickell didn't get a whiff of penalty killing time all season long. And never has at any point in his career.

 

[Tigger]

You guys are getting rid of Kulemin for a player that has never outscored Kulemin?

I mean, I don't know much about the guy, but what does he bring to the table that Kulemin doesn't?

Yeah, bulldog will have to respond to that...

 

[Britishbulldog]

.....I think I read somewhere pre-lockout that the average salary for a third liner with the cap rising year on year was 3 to 3.5 million.....

As an Armchair GM I have being trying to figure out a rule of thumb for roster salaries.

My best attempt breaks down like this:​

What I think Nonis will do next season:​

Cap: $64.3 MIL

Injury/Call-up space $2 MIL      Forwards:$33.4 1st Line $11.2 2nd Line $10.0 3rd Line $7.0 4th Line $3.5 Press Box $1.7 Defense: $22.0 MIL 1st Pair $12 2nd Pair $7.0 3rd Pair $2.2 Press Box $0.8 Goalies: $7.0 MIL Starter $5.5 - $6.0 Back up $1.5 - $1.0 ​

$2 MIL $36.225 MIL  FORWARDS $15.15 MIL - J Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) /  Grabovski ($5.500m) /  Kessel ($5.400m) $11.75 MIL -  Lupul ($5.250m) /  Kadri ($3.000m) /  Clarkson ($3.500m) $4.725 MIL -  Frattin ($0.925m) /  Colborne ($1.000m) /  Kulemin ($2.800m) $3.2 MIL -  Komarov ($1.000m) / McClement ($1.500m) / Colton Orr ($0.700m) Frazer McLaren ($0.700m) / Warm Body ($0.700m) $18.392 MIL  DEFENSEMEN $9.0 MIL - Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m) / Carl Gunnarsson ($2.500m) $4.117 MIL - Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / Cody Franson ($3.000m) $4.675 MIL - Mark Fraser ($0.800m) / John-Michael Liles ($3.875m) 7th Dman ($0.600m) $2.413 MIL  GOALTENDERS James Reimer ($1.800m) Ben Scrivens ($0.613m) OTHER Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m) Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m) ------ CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter) (these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion) SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $62,604,167; BONUSES: $300,000 CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $1,995,833 ​

 

[Britishbulldog]

You guys are getting rid of Kulemin for a player that has never outscored Kulemin?

I mean, I don't know much about the guy, but what does he bring to the table that Kulemin doesn't?

Yeah, bulldog will have to respond to that...

In April I had traded Kulemin to upgrade the 2nd line for more toughness (yeah...read C Stewart).  Without any assets left to trade in my Armchair GM world I had to look for a UFA to pick up and although I REALLY like Clowe, I believe that he is going to be way overpriced and I also believe he is damaged goods now.

Stralberg has the skill and speed that would be an asset on the 3rd line but Bickell was tempting as a 6'4" 233 lbs hitting machine. He is NOT a good fighter though so he wouldn't replace Orr in any way except scoring a few more goals than Orr.  If it is skill we are looking for than Stalberg is the better choice as Chicago is hard against the cap and will have to get creative to keep the players they want on their roster.

 

[Tigger]

Right, so it's not so much getting rid of him to fit in Bickell but rather an attempt to replace his skillset ( I'm not sure he does that, fwiw ) after trading Kulemin to upgrade at another spot.

 

[caver]

I think the Leafs have a killer checking line if they would put Komarov, McClement and Kulemin together. If Carlyle went with 2 scoring lines, a checking line and an energy line (5 mins a game) that checking line could be sent out just to shut down elite players.

 

[brothert]

I think the Leafs have a killer checking line if they would put Komarov, McClement and Kulemin together. If Carlyle went with 2 scoring lines, a checking line and an energy line (5 mins a game) that checking line could be sent out just to shut down elite players.

THIS!

For the brief flashes that they were together this season, they reminded be of Berg-Zezel-Osborne

I have always preferred a dedicated shutdown line.

 

[princedpw]

I think the Leafs have a killer checking line if they would put Komarov, McClement and Kulemin together. If Carlyle went with 2 scoring lines, a checking line and an energy line (5 mins a game) that checking line could be sent out just to shut down elite players.

THIS!

For the brief flashes that they were together this season, they reminded be of Berg-Zezel-Osborne

I have always preferred a dedicated shutdown line.

The Leafs made the playoffs this year in part because Kadri was so productive on the third line.  That third line, playing 15 minutes a night piled up enough goals that it made the difference between winning and losing in quite a few games.  And of course it was also the case that the 3rd liners Kadri was playing against weren't scoring much since Kadri had the puck most of the time (hence his very high +/-).  If instead that 3rd line, you have Komorov, Mcclement, Kulemin, there will be an incredible drop off in scoring.  I'm skeptical those 3 can reduce the other team's scoring enough to make up for their utter, complete lack of offense.

Looking at some of the advanced stats, Mcclement is good on the PK but pretty weak overall 5-v-5.  I'm happy to have Mcclement on the team and playing heavy PK minutes -- that's a valuable role and he does it well but I don't think the team will succeed if he is playing heavy 5-v-5 minutes on the 3rd line.

 

[caver]

Do you mean the stats on McClement playing 5 on 5 with McLaren and Orr as linemates ? I'm not surprised if that is a weak stat.

 

[princedpw]

Do you mean the stats on McClement playing 5 on 5 with McLaren and Orr as linemates ? I'm not surprised if that is a weak stat.

Fair enough.  That will drag him down.  Still, McClement, Komorov and Kulemin are going to score very few points.  The nights on which they outscore the opposition are going to be rare.  Last year, Kessel's line was about even or slightly underperformed compared with the opposition; Grabbo's line underperformed the opposition and Kadri's line outperformed the opposition.  If we don't split Kadri and Kessel, I worry it will wind up being: even, underperform, even or outperform, underperform, underperform ... anyway, I just worry ...

 

[Redleaf]

I really think we have enough offensive minded players on this Leafs team going forward. If I were Nonis I would concentrate all of my efforts on acquiring more defensive minded forwards and defenseman. Guys like Kulemin and Bozak not only need to stay (unless they can be replaced with guys who are better at defence) but I would find more guys like them to fill out the positions that open up when/if guys like MacArthur and Liles depart.

Defense wins championships, and clearly, after watching that collapse, the Leafs do not have enough.

 

[nutman]

I really think we have enough offensive minded players on this Leafs team going forward. If I were Nonis I would concentrate all of my efforts on acquiring more defensive minded forwards and defenseman. Guys like Kulemin and Bozak not only need to stay (unless they can be replaced with guys who are better at defence) but I would find more guys like them to fill out the positions that open up when/if guys like MacArthur and Liles depart.

Defense wins championships, and clearly, after watching that collapse, the Leafs do not have enough.

Well put..

 

[Andy007]

So is Bozak considered a defensive forward because he is always stuck in the defensive zone?

 

[Andy007]

Is Brad Richards an appealing choice to anyone? I imagine he can be cheaply acquired, with NY picking up a nice chunk of his contract. He might thrive once outside the confines of Tortorella, NY's system and without the pressure of that huge contract.

I also think Iginla would fit in nicely on the third line and be a good veteran presence.

Finally I like Ference as an upgrade on O'Byrne, Fraser, Holzer etc. (Not sure how this all works in terms of salary and cap but I'm just armchairing this thing out).

Lupul        Richards          Kessel
JVR          Grabovski        Kulemin
Iginla        Kadri              Frattin
Komarov    McLement      Colborne

*Orr
*McLaren

Gunnarsson  Phaneuf
Gardiner      Ference
Liles          Franson
*Holzer
*Fraser

 

[louisstamos]

I also think Iginla would fit in nicely on the third line and be a good veteran presence.

I like Iginla a lot, but I think he either signs back with Calgary, or one of the four teams he listed at the deadline (Chicago, Boston, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh).

Brad Richards, on the other hand, might be an option - there are rumours of the Rangers using their amnesty buyout on him, and I think that's the situation he'd prefer (both getting his money and making him a UFA and can go wherever he wants).  If there would be a trade, he'd have to waive his NMC to come to Toronto - which is definitely plausible...

 

[Britishbulldog]

So I am getting some concepts of what I think Nonis and the Leafs should do.

Here is what I am thinking this week:

- 1st off, I hope that they don't try to correct everything this summer.

- use the 1st amnesty buyout on Komisarek

AT FORWARD
- I also like Iginla but Clarkson wants to play for the Leafs and he would also cost no assets to acquire. MacArthur was given $3.25 MIL as a RFA and Clarkson is bigger, can match him in scoring and can fight middleweights.  Sounds like a $3.75 to $4 MIL contract is coming to Clarkson.  I would consider making Clarkson a Leaf for life and offering him the UFA max of 7 years as he has been quite durable over his career. A contract of $4, $4, $4, $4, $4, $2.5 (age 35), $2 (age 36) would be a $3.5 MIL cap hit.

I hate his streakiness as a goal scorer because he looks like a superstar power forward for some games and then disappears for LONG stretches.  JVR seems a bit similar so I can't haggle about that point to much.

- Kadri should be re-signed to a reasonable contract.  Matt Duchene scored 24 goals his rookie season and 27 in his 2nd year compared to Kadri scoring 3 and 5 goals respectively as Kadri couldn't crack the line up.  Kadri also got neutralized at the end of this season when teams zeroed in on him and had his production abruptly stop.  I hope he gets signed to a Kulemin style contract at most.

- I hope Colborne can step into the protected 3rd line center role next season.

- Grabovski has skill, work ethic and decent experience in the league and should bounce back as one of the top 2 centers.  IF he doesn't then Nonis uses the 2nd amnesty buyout on Grabovski next summer.

- if one more power forward could be had from a cash strapped team then McLaren and Orr could be sat most nights and Komarov, McClement and Frattin would create a low cost/high impact 4th line. 

If not then Frattin plays on the 3rd line and Clarkson on the 2nd with Orr on the 4th.

ON DEFENSE:
- Keep Phaneuf, Gardiner, Franson and Fraser.  Leave space at the 5th spot for a Marlie like Blacker or Holzer/Kostka.

- I think Franson is going to get around $3 MIL/year on his next contract making him a 2nd pairing defenseman budget-wise.

- I do wish for 1 veteran to help on defense 1st pairing.  Bieska was coveted by some and would be great if Vancouver's cap issues don't resolve themselves with Booth/Ballard's buyouts and Luongo getting traded.  If not, don't panic and keep Gunnarsson for $2.5 MIL for now.

So this week (compared to last season):

JVR /  Grabovski Bozak / Kessel
Lupul / Kadri / Stewart - trade
Kulemin /  Colborne / MacArthur Clarkson - ufa
Komarov / McClement / Frattin
*Orr
*McLaren

Gunnarsson (or vet) / Phaneuf
Gardiner / Franson
Fraser / Blacker (or Marlie like Holzer)
*warm body

BTW, what happened to Brad Richards in NYR?  Was it simply coaching like Carlyle and Grabovski?

 

[bustaheims]

If Richards gets bought out, he's certainly worth considering on a short-term deal, but, with the way he's played this season and in the playoffs, I have some serious concerns about taking him on as a long-term commitment. He has 7 more years left on his contract. That's too long.

 

[Britishbulldog]

If Richards gets bought out, he's certainly worth considering on a short-term deal, but, with the way he's played this season and in the playoffs, I have some serious concerns about taking him on as a long-term commitment. He has 7 more years left on his contract. That's too long.

RICHARDS SCRATCHED AS RANGERS HOST BRUINS IN GAME 4 ON TSN

Wow!? 

 

[Andy007]

If Richards gets bought out, he's certainly worth considering on a short-term deal, but, with the way he's played this season and in the playoffs, I have some serious concerns about taking him on as a long-term commitment. He has 7 more years left on his contract. That's too long.

Yea the contract length is alarming. A short term deal would be ideal, if that opportunity arose. I still think he will significantly outperform both Grabovski and Bozak though, if given the #1 centre role here.

 

[caver]

If Richards gets bought out, he's certainly worth considering on a short-term deal, but, with the way he's played this season and in the playoffs, I have some serious concerns about taking him on as a long-term commitment. He has 7 more years left on his contract. That's too long.

X2

or 3  8)