Unofficial 2013-2014 Armchair GM Thread

[Kin]

Randy's system last year had things going something like:
1st line - 17 minutes
2nd line - 15 minutes
3rd line - 13 minutes
4th line - 5 minutes

With the rest of the game spread out over PP/PK time.  His 3rd liners (outside of Clarkson) where prominent features on his PK while his 1st/2nd line made up his PP units.

Right so...3rd lines don't play 10 minutes?

I honestly wonder how much of the Komarov talk is garbage "he's 'Russian' and loves the KHL" kind of typical media garbage.  He took more money to play in the KHL last year, but it also had a bit of an ulterior motive to get to play in the Olympics in Sochi. Maybe he still gets picked playing 5-8 minutes with Colton Orr + some PK time but it becomes a lot harder.

I think that's a pretty charitable reading of the motives of someone who averaged 14 minutes a night under Carlyle and played most frequently at even strength with Nazem Kadri and Clarke MacArthur.

I think this random argument that he's demanding 3-4 million or some insane number is entirely based on his ethnic background personally.  I'm sure his number comes somewhere between 2 and 3 million on a 3 year deal.

Well, aside from the weird reasoning that sees 2.75 million as a reasonable figure and, say, 3.25 million as insane I really question what this is in reference to. I think Komarov's deal will end up in that range not because he'll "demand" it, as UFA's can't demand anything, but because A) I think he's interested in making as much money as he can and B) he's exactly the kind of player who free agency does well by. There's no value judgment there and certainly not an ethnic value judgment as I by and large tend to be pretty big on players doing as well for themselves as possible regardless.

 

[Corn Flake]

Cal Clutterbuck = 4 yr, $2.75 mil AAV on a deal that starts at $2 mil and goes to $3.5 mil in the 4th year.  Started last season.

He's the closest comparable out there to Komarov.  I would offer Leo the exact same deal. 

 

[Corn Flake]

http://sports.nationalpost.com/2014/05/27/former-toronto-maple-leafs-forward-leo-komarov-wants-to-return-to-nhl-but-can-his-old-team-pay-his-asking-price/

So, on the one hand Traikos says Komarov is believed to be looking for similar to $2 million, and in another suggests it is 2nd line money? 

$2 million cap hit comparables

This is why I didn't believe him. He's totally hedging his bets here.

He will come in somewhere between $1 million and $10 million #confirmed

SOURCE? LINK?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Cal Clutterbuck = 4 yr, $2.75 mil AAV on a deal that starts at $2 mil and goes to $3.5 mil in the 4th year.  Started last season.

He's the closest comparable out there to Komarov.  I would offer Leo the exact same deal.

That is probably the best one.

 

[Kin]

Cal Clutterbuck = 4 yr, $2.75 mil AAV on a deal that starts at $2 mil and goes to $3.5 mil in the 4th year.  Started last season.

He's the closest comparable out there to Komarov.

Sure. It's also a RFA deal though.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Cal Clutterbuck = 4 yr, $2.75 mil AAV on a deal that starts at $2 mil and goes to $3.5 mil in the 4th year.  Started last season.

He's the closest comparable out there to Komarov.  I would offer Leo the exact same deal. 

I'd say Brandon Prust is a good comparable. Signed for 4-years at $2.5mil per. Both agitating 3rd liners who play the PK a bit.

I'd say Komarov is the better player but Prust has more NHL experience and size which GMs will value.

 

[Corn Flake]

Cal Clutterbuck = 4 yr, $2.75 mil AAV on a deal that starts at $2 mil and goes to $3.5 mil in the 4th year.  Started last season.

He's the closest comparable out there to Komarov.

Sure. It's also a RFA deal though.

You think he can get more though? Given Komarov has one shortened NHL season under his belt, it's not the same as Cal, who had 4 or 5 at the time he got the contract.

 

[bustaheims]

Sure. It's also a RFA deal though.

True, but, Clutterbuck's track record compared to Komarov's lack thereof evens things out a little. I don't think there's going to be a huge bidding war for Komarov. What's more likely is a bunch of teams max out in what they're willing to offer at a similar position, and Komarov chooses what he feels is the best fit for him.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Matt Cooke signed for 3-years at $2.5mil per. That seems to be the magic number.

 

[Kin]

You think he can get more though? Given Komarov has one shortened NHL season under his belt, it's not the same as Cal, who had 4 or 5 at the time he got the contract.

I don't necessarily think that's a negative. I think that a good agent can sell a relative unknown quantity as having less wear on the body and, after a productive offensive season in the KHL, as having mysterious potential to be more than what we saw last year as opposed to someone who is more established in that third line checker role.

But really I just fundamentally believe in the inflationary nature of the UFA process. There were a lot of people at this time last year saying how much they'd like to have David Clarkson and, given the nature of his production and assumed desire to play for the Leafs, were writing him into their armchair GM lineups at 4-5 years and between 3.5-4.5 million.

So, at this point, I pretty much just always assume UFA's will get more than people think.

 

[Kin]

True, but, Clutterbuck's track record compared to Komarov's lack thereof evens things out a little.

Like I said above, a solid track record of being a third liner with limited potential for anything more than that might not necessarily be a selling point in all cases and, as we've seen in the past, it really only takes one GM buying that a guy like Komarov has potential for offensive growth to make a more substantial offer.

I don't think there's going to be a huge bidding war for Komarov. What's more likely is a bunch of teams max out in what they're willing to offer at a similar position, and Komarov chooses what he feels is the best fit for him.

Hey, I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again and if Komarov signs for less than three million per I'll be the first to say I got it wrong. I just don't see it now given the information we have.

 

[bustaheims]

Hey, I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again and if Komarov signs for less than three million per I'll be the first to say I got it wrong. I just don't see it now given the information we have.

Well, to be fair, some of the information we have has come from a source that has contradicted himself, so, at the very least, we're building off of a cracked foundation here.

 

[Kin]

Well, to be fair, some of the information we have has come from a source that has contradicted himself, so, at the very least, we're building off of a cracked foundation here.

I know that the Twitter is all the rage with you kids with your hippin' and your hoppin' and your bippin' and your boppin' but when I refer to "information" I more mean the facts we have in front of us than any media reports.

 

[bustaheims]

I know that the Twitter is all the rage with you kids with your hippin' and your hoppin' and your bippin' and your boppin' but when I refer to "information" I more mean the facts we have in front of us than any media reports.

Well, those facts also contain enough inconsistencies to support my analogy.

 

[Kin]

Well, those facts also contain enough inconsistencies to support my analogy.

I suppose, but it's those cracks that are leading me to be all "I could be wrong" about my analysis as opposed to the usual tower of certitude I am. Could Komarov sign for less? Sure. Do I think he will? Well, if I did then I'd probably have made fewer posts here and more wondering why people hate Martin St. Louis all of a sudden.

 

[Champ Kind]

Michael_Traikos: Leo Komarov's agent is in T.O. for draft combine. Says client will play in NHL and looking for long-term deal. Leafs still No 1 choice.

C'mon Nonis, sign him! Whatever it will take!

 

[Champ Kind]

http://sports.nationalpost.com/2014/05/27/former-toronto-maple-leafs-forward-leo-komarov-wants-to-return-to-nhl-but-can-his-old-team-pay-his-asking-price/

So, on the one hand Traikos says Komarov is believed to be looking for similar to $2 million, and in another suggests it is 2nd line money? 

$2 million cap hit comparables

This is why I didn't believe him. He's totally hedging his bets here.

He will come in somewhere between $1 million and $10 million #confirmed

SOURCE? LINK?

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/

 

[nutman]

Michael_Traikos: Leo Komarov's agent is in T.O. for draft combine. Says client will play in NHL and looking for long-term deal. Leafs still No 1 choice.

C'mon Nonis, sign him! Whatever it will take!

Is that a pic of the great one, Secritarit?

 

[Champ Kind]

Is that a pic of the great one, Secritarit?

Great interpretation, wish I had thought of that.  I'm not sure if it is or isn't.

But actually, I was just suggesting that the "do anything to sign Komorov" brigade hold onto their ponies a bit.

 

[Stickytape]

Is that a pic of the great one, Secritarit?

Great interpretation, wish I had thought of that.  I'm not sure if it is or isn't.

But actually, I was just suggesting that the "do anything to sign Komorov" brigade hold onto their ponies a bit.

Oh, I thought you were suggesting something else.

Nonis: "Come on, Leo.  Be reasonable."
Komarov: "No! I want $4 million or I go back to KHL."
Nonis: "I can't go higher than $2.5 million, 3 years."
Komarov: "No!"
Nonis: "$2.5 million and a pony?"
Komarov: "......... Two ponies."
Nonis: "Deal."