Official Armchair GM Thread 2014-2015 Leafs

[cw]

Honestly, I think the Leafs should avoid the FA rush.  See what's around after the dust settles and sign some guys to 1-2 year deals at or below market value.  They're probably going to want to evaluate on a year-to-year basis and not get locked into anything at this point.

Exactly. The best strategy for the Leafs for the next couple summers is to go back to the Santorelli/Winnik types - guys who are looking to rebuild some value or who were overlooked in the opening salvos of free agency - and sign them to cheap, one year deals and move them out at the deadline. It's great for the Leafs, because they get assets for the future in return, and it's great for the players, because they get a very real opportunity to improve their stock for their next go round in the free agent market. Unless there's a clear gem out there (there isn't this summer, and there very rarely is), it's best to not make major splashes in the UFA market.

I also agree completely

 

[bustaheims]

Just to be clear, I'm not advocating loading up on free agents and spending tons of money.  Just pointing out that we can very easily trade a guy like JvR or Kadri and "replace" him on the roster with a FA.

I don't think any of the guys you listed really come to close to actually replacing guys like Kadri or JvR in terms of skill level or talent. The guys that hit the UFA market are the type of pieces you add because you can't get a Kadri or a JvR and you're really just looking for guys who are better or cheaper than the Clarksons of the world. The guys on the roster that are 25 and under are all still young enough to be able to be significant contributors when this team is coming out of the rebuild. They should be retained.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Honestly, I think the Leafs should avoid the FA rush.  See what's around after the dust settles and sign some guys to 1-2 year deals at or below market value.  They're probably going to want to evaluate on a year-to-year basis and not get locked into anything at this point.

Exactly. The best strategy for the Leafs for the next couple summers is to go back to the Santorelli/Winnik types - guys who are looking to rebuild some value or who were overlooked in the opening salvos of free agency - and sign them to cheap, one year deals and move them out at the deadline. It's great for the Leafs, because they get assets for the future in return, and it's great for the players, because they get a very real opportunity to improve their stock for their next go round in the free agent market. Unless there's a clear gem out there (there isn't this summer, and there very rarely is), it's best to not make major splashes in the UFA market.

Just to be clear, I'm not advocating loading up on free agents and spending tons of money.  Just pointing out that we can very easily trade a guy like JvR or Kadri and "replace" him on the roster with a FA.

But if the goal is to win in 3-5 years (optimistically) then you need the JVR and Kadri's to fill out your roster and be a successful team, that calibre of player is not easily replaced by some spare part FA.

 

[Kin]

But if the goal is to win in 3-5 years (optimistically) then you need the JVR and Kadri's to fill out your roster and be a successful team, that calibre of player is not easily replaced by some spare part FA.

But I think that's where wires are getting crossed here. I don't want to speak for AA here but I think the point he's making is that the sort of secondary players that guys like Kadri/JVR are likely to be in 3-5 years are available via free agency or what have you and so that trading Kadri/JVR isn't dooming the team to an Oilers like roster down the road.

 

[cw]

Although there is no excuse for lack of effort, lets face it the team is in free fall. I think we knew when Shannaplan took over it would get worse before it got better.  I truly believe with Dubois and Hunter in our front office with the other changes we have made, that the rebuild has started already. We have some great draft picks this year, and hopefully add two or three future pieces to the puzzle. Regarding JVR and Kessel, I think you have to let them reset themselves under the new coach whom will take over and set this ship on a new course.  You just can't get rid of every single player, it doesnt make sense in the least. Of course in a years time if JVR and Kessel are not in total production mode then trade them.
In the meantime I hope Nonis is setting up a new home for Phaneuf, Bozak, Lupul (whom I like a lot) and Bernier (whom I restate is not our future) for the summer.

As they're not going to win a Cup in the next couple of years, there's no big rush. If they can rehabilitate some of their current  top 6 in another season or two, to get better trade value in return than now, I have no problem with that.

To me, it remains a math problem: compress the most and best NHL talent you can on a NHL roster constrained by the cap.

JVR's next deal is when he's 28-29. He's going to cost full pop. He won't likely be a "deal". And like many forwards, he's entering his declining years early into that next deal. So he's probably not going to be a part of a Leafs parade.

To me, the probable key target is trying to find a couple of young franchise players to come along with Rielly. They need that and a teaming farm system to contend. If they haven't got that, they might as well roll the roster until they do to maximize their chances of winning something.

I'm not counting on JVR long term.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Although there is no excuse for lack of effort, lets face it the team is in free fall. I think we knew when Shannaplan took over it would get worse before it got better.  I truly believe with Dubois and Hunter in our front office with the other changes we have made, that the rebuild has started already. We have some great draft picks this year, and hopefully add two or three future pieces to the puzzle. Regarding JVR and Kessel, I think you have to let them reset themselves under the new coach whom will take over and set this ship on a new course.  You just can't get rid of every single player, it doesnt make sense in the least. Of course in a years time if JVR and Kessel are not in total production mode then trade them.
In the meantime I hope Nonis is setting up a new home for Phaneuf, Bozak, Lupul (whom I like a lot) and Bernier (whom I restate is not our future) for the summer.

As they're not going to win a Cup in the next couple of years, there's no big rush. If they can rehabilitate some of their current  top 6 in another season or two, to get better trade value in return than now, I have no problem with that.

To me, it remains a math problem: compress the most and best NHL talent you can on a NHL roster constrained by the cap.

JVR's next deal is when he's 28-29. He's going to cost full pop. He won't likely be a "deal". And like many forwards, he's entering his declining years early into that next deal. So he's probably not going to be a part of a Leafs parade.

To me, the probable key target is trying to find a couple of young franchise players to come along with Rielly. They need that and a teaming farm system to contend. If they haven't got that, they might as well roll the roster until they do to maximize their chances of winning something.

I'm not counting on JVR long term.

I'm wondering if JVR might have more value in a trade than Kessel.  He's a couple of years younger, his contract is much more affordable, and he has the potential to put up just as many goals with the right line mates.  He's also much bigger and has more tools than Kessel does.

If I was going to trade him I might do it now while he's still got a couple of years left on his contract.  I'm wondering if he would fetch a couple of first round picks?

 

[AvroArrow]

Just to be clear, I'm not advocating loading up on free agents and spending tons of money.  Just pointing out that we can very easily trade a guy like JvR or Kadri and "replace" him on the roster with a FA.

I don't think any of the guys you listed really come to close to actually replacing guys like Kadri or JvR in terms of skill level or talent. The guys that hit the UFA market are the type of pieces you add because you can't get a Kadri or a JvR and you're really just looking for guys who are better or cheaper than the Clarksons of the world. The guys on the roster that are 25 and under are all still young enough to be able to be significant contributors when this team is coming out of the rebuild. They should be retained.

That's why I put the word replace in quotation marks.  Really, they'd replace their roster spot.

As for keeping players < 25 years old, I honestly don't see a point to going up that high in age.  This team is much more likely to be a 5-7 year rebuild than a 3-5 year rebuild. I'd only keep Rielly from the current roster.

 

[AvroArrow]

But if the goal is to win in 3-5 years (optimistically) then you need the JVR and Kadri's to fill out your roster and be a successful team, that calibre of player is not easily replaced by some spare part FA.

That's the thing, I highly doubt we'll be competitive in 3-5 years.  We can't put the cart before the horse.  We need to load this franchise with as much prospect talent as possible so that we truly do have a chance of becoming a contender down the road.

 

[Britishbulldog]

Oh man.  I see there is 2 or 3 more pages since I logged on this morning but I need to hurry.  I have been working all day and as I have been reading the trade rumours around the NHL the last couple of weeks I decided that I would post my trade thoughts here in the Armchair thread. I have also seen things different folks here have posted in all different threads about what the Leafs should do before next Fall.  I might just be repeating what others are saying or I might be in left field completely with this fantasy armchair stuff.

I don't think that Bozak or Lupul would fetch much return and I think JVR could but I would keep him at least another season to see how he plays.  I am hoping that Gardiner can pick it up and increase his trade value.  IF he can then I would strip back the Leafs to look like this:

JVR / Bozak / xxx
Lupul / Holland / xxx
xxx / Komarov / Panik
xxx / Sill / Kozun

xxx / xxx
xxx / Robidas
Rielly / xxx

Bernier
xxx

The Leafs need at least 1 tough dman like Polak and I would like to see if they could get RFA Bortuzzo from the Blues.

I would then look to move Kadri + Polak for Bogasian

Help the cash strapped Coyotes and take Mike Smith's $5.5.  I would suggest Reimer and Gardiner (play better Gardiner like you did in the playoffs!!) and look for Ekman-Larsson to be added (whose yearly salary is increasing dramatically and was available for the right deal at this year's trade deadline)

That would allow Phaneuf to be moved to Edmonton and I would look for Eberle (who has been healthy for his career) or Hall (who seems to have more skill but has been hurt almost as much as Lupul unfortunately).

That would allow Kessel to be moved to NYI for Ryan Strome and Griffin Reinhart.

Sign a rh shot UFA for the 3rd line and a lh shot (like Booth or Winnick) for the 4th line.

Mike Smith's buyout has a $1.167 cap hit for the next 2 seasons and rises to $2.667 for the 4th season before returning to $2 MIL for the last 4 season.  http://war-on-ice.com/captools.html?&woiid=smithmi82  It would obviously hurt a bit but would give the Leafs a top dman.

JVR / Bozak / Eberle - Hall
Lupul / Holland / Strome
Stewart  / Komarov / Panik
Booth / Sill / Kozun

Ekman-Larsson / Bogosian
Reinhart / Robidas
Rielly / Bortuzzo

Bernier
Smith or UFA

Those are the basis of the trades and Nonis might add stuff to balance the deals.  It would give the Leafs a mix of youth and veterans, skill and toughness and with the Gleason buyout, Gunarsson salary and Smith buyout the salary would be  a LOW cap hit of $57.717 giving space for future additions.

If the Leafs don't win the lottery then hopefully Dylan Strome is drafted and left in Junior.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

I like some of your ideas BBD, but curious why you would chose to hold on to Bozak?  And as much as I like Ekman-Larsson, I don't think you pry him away (or Reinhart/Stome for that matter).

 

[Chris]

But if the goal is to win in 3-5 years (optimistically) then you need the JVR and Kadri's to fill out your roster and be a successful team, that calibre of player is not easily replaced by some spare part FA.

That's the thing, I highly doubt we'll be competitive in 3-5 years.  We can't put the cart before the horse.  We need to load this franchise with as much prospect talent as possible so that we truly do have a chance of becoming a contender down the road.

5 years? Maybe. 3 years? That sounds like another attempt to skip the total rebuild and rush the process. You know, kind of like Burke did...

The problem with planning to keep any of these guys around long term (Kessel, JVR, Bozak in particular) is that they've shown that when the going gets tough, they give up. If you're planning for several years of losing while building up the system, they don't sound like the kind of players to keep around because the going is going to be tough. Trade them for assets and surround the developing young core with Santorelli types.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Although there is no excuse for lack of effort, lets face it the team is in free fall. I think we knew when Shannaplan took over it would get worse before it got better.  I truly believe with Dubois and Hunter in our front office with the other changes we have made, that the rebuild has started already. We have some great draft picks this year, and hopefully add two or three future pieces to the puzzle. Regarding JVR and Kessel, I think you have to let them reset themselves under the new coach whom will take over and set this ship on a new course.  You just can't get rid of every single player, it doesnt make sense in the least. Of course in a years time if JVR and Kessel are not in total production mode then trade them.
In the meantime I hope Nonis is setting up a new home for Phaneuf, Bozak, Lupul (whom I like a lot) and Bernier (whom I restate is not our future) for the summer.

As they're not going to win a Cup in the next couple of years, there's no big rush. If they can rehabilitate some of their current  top 6 in another season or two, to get better trade value in return than now, I have no problem with that.

To me, it remains a math problem: compress the most and best NHL talent you can on a NHL roster constrained by the cap.

JVR's next deal is when he's 28-29. He's going to cost full pop. He won't likely be a "deal". And like many forwards, he's entering his declining years early into that next deal. So he's probably not going to be a part of a Leafs parade.

To me, the probable key target is trying to find a couple of young franchise players to come along with Rielly. They need that and a teaming farm system to contend. If they haven't got that, they might as well roll the roster until they do to maximize their chances of winning something.

I'm not counting on JVR long term.

I'm wondering if JVR might have more value in a trade than Kessel.  He's a couple of years younger, his contract is much more affordable, and he has the potential to put up just as many goals with the right line mates.  He's also much bigger and has more tools than Kessel does.

If I was going to trade him I might do it now while he's still got a couple of years left on his contract.  I'm wondering if he would fetch a couple of first round picks?

I don't really think JVR has more tools than Kessel does.  At best I'd say it's even.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Although there is no excuse for lack of effort, lets face it the team is in free fall. I think we knew when Shannaplan took over it would get worse before it got better.  I truly believe with Dubois and Hunter in our front office with the other changes we have made, that the rebuild has started already. We have some great draft picks this year, and hopefully add two or three future pieces to the puzzle. Regarding JVR and Kessel, I think you have to let them reset themselves under the new coach whom will take over and set this ship on a new course.  You just can't get rid of every single player, it doesnt make sense in the least. Of course in a years time if JVR and Kessel are not in total production mode then trade them.
In the meantime I hope Nonis is setting up a new home for Phaneuf, Bozak, Lupul (whom I like a lot) and Bernier (whom I restate is not our future) for the summer.

As they're not going to win a Cup in the next couple of years, there's no big rush. If they can rehabilitate some of their current  top 6 in another season or two, to get better trade value in return than now, I have no problem with that.

To me, it remains a math problem: compress the most and best NHL talent you can on a NHL roster constrained by the cap.

JVR's next deal is when he's 28-29. He's going to cost full pop. He won't likely be a "deal". And like many forwards, he's entering his declining years early into that next deal. So he's probably not going to be a part of a Leafs parade.

To me, the probable key target is trying to find a couple of young franchise players to come along with Rielly. They need that and a teaming farm system to contend. If they haven't got that, they might as well roll the roster until they do to maximize their chances of winning something.

I'm not counting on JVR long term.

I'm wondering if JVR might have more value in a trade than Kessel.  He's a couple of years younger, his contract is much more affordable, and he has the potential to put up just as many goals with the right line mates.  He's also much bigger and has more tools than Kessel does.

If I was going to trade him I might do it now while he's still got a couple of years left on his contract.  I'm wondering if he would fetch a couple of first round picks?

I don't really think JVR has more tools than Kessel does.  At best I'd say it's even.

Yeah, you might be right.  But I do like the fact that JVR is big and will hang out in front of the net and cause trouble.  That he can deflect the puck off a hard shot and score goals in close.  I guess I figured other GMs would find those qualities more appealing, not to mention his cap hit, between what he and Kessel bring.  The downside is, the Leafs have gone a lot of years without a guy who would stand in front of the net (Clarkson doesn't count).

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Although there is no excuse for lack of effort, lets face it the team is in free fall. I think we knew when Shannaplan took over it would get worse before it got better.  I truly believe with Dubois and Hunter in our front office with the other changes we have made, that the rebuild has started already. We have some great draft picks this year, and hopefully add two or three future pieces to the puzzle. Regarding JVR and Kessel, I think you have to let them reset themselves under the new coach whom will take over and set this ship on a new course.  You just can't get rid of every single player, it doesnt make sense in the least. Of course in a years time if JVR and Kessel are not in total production mode then trade them.
In the meantime I hope Nonis is setting up a new home for Phaneuf, Bozak, Lupul (whom I like a lot) and Bernier (whom I restate is not our future) for the summer.

As they're not going to win a Cup in the next couple of years, there's no big rush. If they can rehabilitate some of their current  top 6 in another season or two, to get better trade value in return than now, I have no problem with that.

To me, it remains a math problem: compress the most and best NHL talent you can on a NHL roster constrained by the cap.

JVR's next deal is when he's 28-29. He's going to cost full pop. He won't likely be a "deal". And like many forwards, he's entering his declining years early into that next deal. So he's probably not going to be a part of a Leafs parade.

To me, the probable key target is trying to find a couple of young franchise players to come along with Rielly. They need that and a teaming farm system to contend. If they haven't got that, they might as well roll the roster until they do to maximize their chances of winning something.

I'm not counting on JVR long term.

I'm wondering if JVR might have more value in a trade than Kessel.  He's a couple of years younger, his contract is much more affordable, and he has the potential to put up just as many goals with the right line mates.  He's also much bigger and has more tools than Kessel does.

If I was going to trade him I might do it now while he's still got a couple of years left on his contract.  I'm wondering if he would fetch a couple of first round picks?

I don't really think JVR has more tools than Kessel does.  At best I'd say it's even.

Yeah, you might be right.  But I do like the fact that JVR is big and will hang out in front of the net and cause trouble.  That he can deflect the puck off a hard shot and score goals in close.  I guess I figured other GMs would find those qualities more appealing, not to mention his cap hit, between what he and Kessel bring.  The downside is, the Leafs have gone a lot of years without a guy who would stand in front of the net (Clarkson doesn't count).

I don't think Kessel gets enough credit for his playmaking ability.  I think it is elite (or very close to it) along with his shot, and that it's developed since coming to Toronto.  But you're right that JVR has a very appealing contract.  Probably still one of the best in the league.

 

[cw]

Although there is no excuse for lack of effort, lets face it the team is in free fall. I think we knew when Shannaplan took over it would get worse before it got better.  I truly believe with Dubois and Hunter in our front office with the other changes we have made, that the rebuild has started already. We have some great draft picks this year, and hopefully add two or three future pieces to the puzzle. Regarding JVR and Kessel, I think you have to let them reset themselves under the new coach whom will take over and set this ship on a new course.  You just can't get rid of every single player, it doesnt make sense in the least. Of course in a years time if JVR and Kessel are not in total production mode then trade them.
In the meantime I hope Nonis is setting up a new home for Phaneuf, Bozak, Lupul (whom I like a lot) and Bernier (whom I restate is not our future) for the summer.

As they're not going to win a Cup in the next couple of years, there's no big rush. If they can rehabilitate some of their current  top 6 in another season or two, to get better trade value in return than now, I have no problem with that.

To me, it remains a math problem: compress the most and best NHL talent you can on a NHL roster constrained by the cap.

JVR's next deal is when he's 28-29. He's going to cost full pop. He won't likely be a "deal". And like many forwards, he's entering his declining years early into that next deal. So he's probably not going to be a part of a Leafs parade.

To me, the probable key target is trying to find a couple of young franchise players to come along with Rielly. They need that and a teaming farm system to contend. If they haven't got that, they might as well roll the roster until they do to maximize their chances of winning something.

I'm not counting on JVR long term.

I'm wondering if JVR might have more value in a trade than Kessel.  He's a couple of years younger, his contract is much more affordable, and he has the potential to put up just as many goals with the right line mates.  He's also much bigger and has more tools than Kessel does.

If I was going to trade him I might do it now while he's still got a couple of years left on his contract.  I'm wondering if he would fetch a couple of first round picks?

I think JVR is currently a much better bang for a team's buck and much less risk. He's two years younger. I think he's a more complete and versatile player. Arguably, he's closed the gap between them quite a bit. He's not the thoroughbred goal scorer Kessel is.

But I doubt any GM in the league is going to give the Leafs much to take on seven more years at $8mil per after a third season collapse and pout by Kessel. He's paid like a top 10 player in the NHL but in his prime, not playing like one. It's just too risky for that much cap space in an upcoming season where the cap isn't likely to budge. The Leafs would probably have to eat a some of his contract to get any value back.

I realize he's probably not in their long term plans after this fiasco but they might be best to hold their noses for this stinker of a season and see if they can elevate a return for him in a subsequent season. I think he's at a low and can bounce back some.

Phaneuf is a little older and being more physical may be more prone to injury. He might be the higher priority between the two to move. I'm not sure he can boost his value a lot with another season in Toronto (not impossible but ..)

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

But I doubt any GM in the league is going to give the Leafs much to take on seven more years at $8mil per after a third season collapse and pout by Kessel. He's paid like a top 10 player in the NHL but in his prime, not playing like one. It's just too risky for that much cap space in an upcoming season where the cap isn't likely to budge. The Leafs would probably have to eat a some of his contract to get any value back.

I think you (a) undervalue how much offensive production is worth in the NHL (goal scoring is a rare occurrence, goal-scorers are valued heavily) and (b) how much NHL GMs would take into account the last few months compared with the previous body of work Kessel has produced for the Leafs/Bruins.  There's no sense the Leafs over-reacting to a few months of poor play just like another GM shouldn't.

He's produced at an elite level multiple years running and people want to take the last few months and say his value is significantly lower and it's indicative of his play going forward.  We don't know, all we know is that he's performed among the top 10 offensively in the league longer than he's performed like this while a Toronto Maple Leafs player.

 

[bustaheims]

As for keeping players < 25 years old, I honestly don't see a point to going up that high in age.  This team is much more likely to be a 5-7 year rebuild than a 3-5 year rebuild. I'd only keep Rielly from the current roster.

I think that's way too extreme. Even with a 5 year time frame to get back to being competitive (not contending for the Cup necessarily, but, hopefully getting close - a fairly realistic timeframe if things are done in the right way), we're still talking about guys that are 30 years old or younger. That's still very much an age where players can contribute at a very high level.

 

[AvroArrow]

I think that's way too extreme. Even with a 5 year time frame to get back to being competitive (not contending for the Cup necessarily, but, hopefully getting close - a fairly realistic timeframe if things are done in the right way), we're still talking about guys that are 30 years old or younger. That's still very much an age where players can contribute at a very high level.

My concern there is having a declining 30 year old on year 2 of a 7 year, 7M per contract.  That very well may limit our ability to get the right amount of depth around the new core, or quite possibly to retain all of that core.

Obviously we disagree here, but personally, I'd trade JvR and Kadri for that matter.

 

[bustaheims]

My concern there is having a declining 30 year old on year 2 of a 7 year, 7M per contract.  That very well may limit our ability to get the right amount of depth around the new core, or quite possibly to retain all of that core.

Obviously we disagree here, but personally, I'd trade JvR and Kadri for that matter.

I understand that concern, but I think it's pretty unfounded. I doubt JvR or Kadri (or any of the other 24/25 y/o players on the team, for that matter) will be declining in any significant way at 30. None of them play a style that leads to them breaking down at an early age. I imagine all of the current 25 and under Leafs that are worth keeping will still be solid contributors until they're ~35. On top of that, there will be plenty of other contracts moved out by then and as long as the team isn't handing out expensive multiyear contracts to depth pieces and replaceable parts, there will be plenty of cap space.

 

[Britishbulldog]

I like some of your ideas BBD, but curious why you would chose to hold on to Bozak?  And as much as I like Ekman-Larsson, I don't think you pry him away (or Reinhart/Stome for that matter).

My idea is have a 1 year clean out that hopefully can set the stage for TML to grow into a successful team for many years.

My issue with the Leafs centers is trying to maximize the return.  I would be delighted to keep a guy like Kadri but Bozak + Polak for Bogosian wouldn't probably fly as the Kadri package is even debatable.  Maybe I am over valuing Bogosian.  I think this years 1st pick of TML should not be rushed and if it is a center not named McDavid then Bozak allows for that.

The other trades:
RFA Bortuzzo from the Blues.  I like him because he is not a hot head but can play physical. Any similar player works though.

Reimer and Gardiner (add Nash 1st pick) for Mike Smith and Ekman-Larsson - is a bit nuts since I feel E-L is one of the best dmen in the league.  I was simply playing on the money issues Arizona has and knowing that Smith has a RIDICULOUS contract that Arizona can't afford to deal with... anymore than Columbus could deal with Horton... combined with the financial fact that E-L is heading to $7 MIL a season territory. 

Phaneuf for injury prone Hall (or Eberle) finally gives Edm a decent d-pairing with Ference.

Kessel IS an elite offensive RW.  I figured a 2nd/3rd line RW with a solid #3 2nd pairing dman would be fair.  With the dmen signed in NYI I was thinking that they could be trade partners but Reinhart might become a top pairing dman. Any team in the playoffs this year that struggles with scoring would probably give TML those 2 kind of players before next season or maybe even the draft.

Signing 2 UFAs is the easy part.