Bozak's Future

[moon111]

Bozak is not a 'piece' of the puzzle.  Filler material.  For the money he's asking, I'd rather let him go, even if the Leafs didn't make the playoffs because of it.

 

[KoHo]

I'm just so sick of the Bozak debate. It's gone on and on and on throughout the season and into the off-season. We get it, he's not that good and the blogging community despises him. Look, if we can re-sign him for 3rd line centre money let's do it. If his demands exceed that he should be let go. That's it.

Now we just have to wait to see what happens

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Well I'm glad you solved that for us. Thanks!

 

[mr grieves]

Well, fair enough. Reports say he's looking for about $5m. So, comparables are Bergeron, Krejci, Horcoff, Carter, Plekanec, and Kesler. Make of that what you will.

It's interesting that he's comparable to guys whose cap hits are as much as five hundred thousand dollars higher than what "reports" say he's looking for but not a couple hundred thousand below that. Of course, it's not like anyone's looking to frame it in the worst possible light or anything.

Well, okay. Dropping it to 4.5m and you get: Leino, Legwand, Backes, and Jokinen.

And Tuomo Ruutu, RJ Umberger, Tim Connolly, Brooks Laich...I mean, it's not really the exclusive realm of superstars, is it? Filter out the guys who signed their deals as RFAs, as you should, and it's not much of a list.

Well, having done that, it looks to me like a list of incredibly good value contracts (Bergeron, mostly) followed by contracts most decent GMs would probably like to avoid (Leino, Horcoff, Jokinen, Connolly). So, it's not all that surprising that negotiations aren't going well.

 

[Kin]

Well, having done that, it looks to me like a list of incredibly good value contracts (Bergeron, mostly) followed by contracts most decent GMs would probably like to avoid (Leino, Horcoff, Jokinen, Connolly). So, it's not all that surprising that negotiations aren't going well.

You know it's funny but I had a fairly similar problem when I was looking at the list of guys making 4.5-5.5 million. Like you say it seems to almost entirely be a list of guys where you say either "He'd get 1-2 million more on the open market" or "his team would love to get rid of him" with very little in-between. I'm not sure, after looking at the list, that I have a great concept of what is appropriate value for someone to provide at that salary. I suppose someone like Backes or Plekanec fit roughly into it but even then I think that someone would offer 6 million or so if they hit free agency today. Maybe it would be what you would ideally pay someone like Jordan Staal but we saw how that turned out.

Anyways, I think you'd agree that if you look at the list the idea that 5 million dollars is going to buy you someone you want to put on your 1st line doesn't really hold a ton of water. Like you say Bergeron is the only guy who resembles that and A) he was kind of a unique situation where he probably took less than he could have made as a UFA to stay in Boston and B) Boston's success hasn't really come from leaning on him as their traditional #1(he's not leading their centers in ice time in the playoffs, for example). Other than that, it looks to be an amount you give someone hoping they can be a part of a good second line but, if they fail at that, it probably makes them too expensive to be third liners.

 

[Champ Kind]

As Nik says, Boazak is as 'deserving' of what he's going to get as any of the others who will have received a similar salary and term.  For me, the dilemma is having two second / third line centres (Bozak & Grabovski) making +/- $5 who play what amounts to a very similar game. 

Truth be known, if I was King for a day I sign Bozak to his $5M deal and I sell off Grabovski.  But that's just me.

 

[Peter D.]

Is Bozak a case of being more valuable to his current team than he would elsewhere? 

Do we actually foresee many teams lining up to give him $4.5-5M a year? 

 

[Jalili]

Is Bozak a case of being more valuable to his current team than he would elsewhere? 

Do we actually foresee many teams lining up to give him $4.5-5M a year?

Of the top of my head a team like Winnipeg might. A few teams out there are hurting for center depth.

 

[ZBBM]

Is Bozak a case of being more valuable to his current team than he would elsewhere? 

Do we actually foresee many teams lining up to give him $4.5-5M a year?

Of the top of my head a team like Winnipeg might. A few teams out there are hurting for center depth.

Including us.  :-\

 

[Peter D.]

Is Bozak a case of being more valuable to his current team than he would elsewhere? 

Do we actually foresee many teams lining up to give him $4.5-5M a year?

Of the top of my head a team like Winnipeg might. A few teams out there are hurting for center depth.

Well, that's just it for me.  Is it going to be a legitimate contender-type team willing to give him that type of contract.  Or will it be teams like the Winnipeg, Calgary and Dallas that are trying to piecemeal things together or a team trying to scrape to get to reach/maintain the cap floor. 

 

[cw]

http://www.startribune.com/sports/blogs/211976351.html
So as Wild GM Chuck Fletcher said, ?This is the tightest market the league?s ever seen. There?s just not a lot of money in the marketplace to spend, so it will be really interesting to see what happens this summer. The available dollars are a fraction of what they normally are. It?ll certainly have a big impact on what happens and more importantly what doesn?t happen.?

When you throw in the fact that a number of players will be added to the free-agent crop by way of compliance and regular buyouts, Fletcher said, ?There could be a pretty vicious game of musical chairs. Come July 15, it could be a scary environment to be a player. You can analyze it all you want, but that?s just common sense when you consider the reduction of overall dollars available.?

I think there's some truth to that. But I think the top demanded UFAs will still get inflated big bucks to lure them. The balance will have to be careful they don't price themselves out of a job.

Bozak is somewhere in between. There's a serious shortage of top 6 centers that will help him. But the market is going to be tight on dollars for a guy on the fringes of top 6.

Bozak's best move might be to re-sign with the Leafs short term, hoping to cash in on playing a full season with a healthy Lupul & Kessel - where he might boost his points production. And then try again when the market isn't dealing with a cap crunch.

 

[Deebo]

http://www.startribune.com/sports/blogs/211976351.html
So as Wild GM Chuck Fletcher said, ?This is the tightest market the league?s ever seen. There?s just not a lot of money in the marketplace to spend, so it will be really interesting to see what happens this summer. The available dollars are a fraction of what they normally are. It?ll certainly have a big impact on what happens and more importantly what doesn?t happen.?

When you throw in the fact that a number of players will be added to the free-agent crop by way of compliance and regular buyouts, Fletcher said, ?There could be a pretty vicious game of musical chairs. Come July 15, it could be a scary environment to be a player. You can analyze it all you want, but that?s just common sense when you consider the reduction of overall dollars available.?

I think there's some truth to that. But I think the top demanded UFAs will still get inflated big bucks to lure them. The balance will have to be careful they don't price themselves out of a job.

Bozak is somewhere in between. There's a serious shortage of top 6 centers that will help him. But the market is going to be tight on dollars for a guy on the fringes of top 6.

Bozak's best move might be to re-sign with the Leafs short term, hoping to cash in on playing a full season with a healthy Lupul & Kessel - where he might boost his points production. And then try again when the market isn't dealing with a cap crunch.

This is interesting off-season since the lower cap number is artificial and the cap should go back up a few million the following off-season. I wonder if some players might take a shorter term deal and try to cash in a couple years from now when the cap increases.

 

[Frank E]

http://www.startribune.com/sports/blogs/211976351.html
So as Wild GM Chuck Fletcher said, ?This is the tightest market the league?s ever seen. There?s just not a lot of money in the marketplace to spend, so it will be really interesting to see what happens this summer. The available dollars are a fraction of what they normally are. It?ll certainly have a big impact on what happens and more importantly what doesn?t happen.?

When you throw in the fact that a number of players will be added to the free-agent crop by way of compliance and regular buyouts, Fletcher said, ?There could be a pretty vicious game of musical chairs. Come July 15, it could be a scary environment to be a player. You can analyze it all you want, but that?s just common sense when you consider the reduction of overall dollars available.?

I think there's some truth to that. But I think the top demanded UFAs will still get inflated big bucks to lure them. The balance will have to be careful they don't price themselves out of a job.

Bozak is somewhere in between. There's a serious shortage of top 6 centers that will help him. But the market is going to be tight on dollars for a guy on the fringes of top 6.

Bozak's best move might be to re-sign with the Leafs short term, hoping to cash in on playing a full season with a healthy Lupul & Kessel - where he might boost his points production. And then try again when the market isn't dealing with a cap crunch.

This is interesting off-season since the lower cap number is artificial and the cap should go back up a few million the following off-season. I wonder if some players might take a shorter term deal and try to cash in a couple years from now when the cap increases.

Seems though that these guys often look for security of a long term deal, even at less than optimum dollars. 

 

[mr grieves]

Well, having done that, it looks to me like a list of incredibly good value contracts (Bergeron, mostly) followed by contracts most decent GMs would probably like to avoid (Leino, Horcoff, Jokinen, Connolly). So, it's not all that surprising that negotiations aren't going well.

You know it's funny but I had a fairly similar problem when I was looking at the list of guys making 4.5-5.5 million. Like you say it seems to almost entirely be a list of guys where you say either "He'd get 1-2 million more on the open market" or "his team would love to get rid of him" with very little in-between. I'm not sure, after looking at the list, that I have a great concept of what is appropriate value for someone to provide at that salary. I suppose someone like Backes or Plekanec fit roughly into it but even then I think that someone would offer 6 million or so if they hit free agency today. Maybe it would be what you would ideally pay someone like Jordan Staal but we saw how that turned out.

Anyways, I think you'd agree that if you look at the list the idea that 5 million dollars is going to buy you someone you want to put on your 1st line doesn't really hold a ton of water.

I would. $4.5-5.5m UFAs seem to be not the way to go for a very good first line option.

It's also a bit confusing with Bozak because, while he's a UFA, will negotiate like one, and wants to be paid like one, he's only been an NHL regular for 3 seasons, one of which was the abbreviated lock-out one.

 

[mr grieves]

As Nik says, Boazak is as 'deserving' of what he's going to get as any of the others who will have received a similar salary and term.  For me, the dilemma is having two second / third line centres (Bozak & Grabovski) making +/- $5 who play what amounts to a very similar game. 

Truth be known, if I was King for a day I sign Bozak to his $5M deal and I sell off Grabovski.  But that's just me.

If it came down to one or the other, I'd rather go with Grabovski. Of the list of guys making around $5m, his production is in the same league as Backes and Plekanec, about the best of those making similar money. Their production, going from Grabovski to Backes to Plekanec is .62, .63, and .69 ppg over the last three seasons; 1.90, 1.61, and 1.66 P/60 ES over the same period.

Grabbo's is not a great contract, but it isn't one of those where you think the team would love to be rid of it.

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

Would we get anything for trading Bozak's rights now? I'm thinking along the lines of a 6th round pick?

 

[bustaheims]

Would we get anything for trading Bozak's rights now? I'm thinking along the lines of a 6th round pick?

The Leafs no longer own his rights. His contract officially expired at midnight on June 30th.

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

Would we get anything for trading Bozak's rights now? I'm thinking along the lines of a 6th round pick?

The Leafs no longer own his rights. His contract officially expired at midnight on June 30th.

Thanks for that...assumed his contract ran until midnight on Thursday.

 

[Kin]

Would we get anything for trading Bozak's rights now? I'm thinking along the lines of a 6th round pick?

The Leafs no longer own his rights. His contract officially expired at midnight on June 30th.

Either way I think that usually the sorts of players who can fetch assets once it's pretty clear that they won't re-sign with their original club are the guys who are going to be pretty sought after free agents. I'm not sure it's clear Bozak ranks there.

 

[bustaheims]

Thanks for that...assumed his contract ran until midnight on Thursday.

No, they changed things up with the new CBA. There's now an "interview period" between contracts expiring and UFA season officially opening for business. Teams are free to talk to any free agent on the market right now and even agree to terms with them, but they can only officially sign guys who played for other teams at noon on Friday.